Gale Warning 48, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 102308
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE JAN 10 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-111500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 995 MB LOW 90 NM NORTH OF COLD BAY WILL DISSIPATE NEAR CHIGNIK WED
AFTERNOON. A 982 MB LOW 550 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WED WILL MOVE TO 
215 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA AT 980 MB THU.
$$

PKZ150-111500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST TUE JAN 10 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND DIMINISHING TO 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS.
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-111500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST TUE JAN 10 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-111500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST TUE JAN 10 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WED AND WED NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WED NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-111500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST TUE JAN 10 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-111500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST TUE JAN 10 2006

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SNOW AND FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SNOW AND FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-111500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST TUE JAN 10 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-111500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST TUE JAN 10 2006

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-111500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST TUE JAN 10 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-111500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST TUE JAN 10 2006

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-111500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST TUE JAN 10 2006

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW.  
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-111500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST TUE JAN 10 2006

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT.  
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-111500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST TUE JAN 10 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WED NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST TUE JAN 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY.  JET IS STILL HIGHLY ZONAL AND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS NO LONGER EVIDENT
ON 300 MB ANALYSIS.  SATELLITE DOES SHOW SOME ROTATION IN THE REGION
BUT THE ASSOCIATED TROUGHS HAVE WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT THEY ARE
NO LONGER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCERS.  OF NOTE IS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE LOW IN THE BERING.  THE COLD AIR POURING OFF SIBERIA YESTERDAY
AIDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL SURFACE FEATURES.  THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WAS LYING NEAR COLD BAY YESTERDAY HAS MOVED EASTWARD BUT
IS NOW STALLED OVER THE KING SALMON REGION.  MEANWHILE SATELLITE
PROVES YESTERDAY MODELS RUNS WERE CORRECT...A LOW HAS FORMED NEAR ST
PAUL AND IS ALSO PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD.  850 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT COLD AIR FROM RUSSIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW.  HOWEVER WITH A LACK OF OTHER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ONCE IT LOSES THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN ONCE IT NEARS THE PORT HEIDEN REGION.

IN THE EAST...AS MENTIONED ABOVE THINGS ARE FAIRLY QUIET.  MIDDLETON
ISLAND RADAR SHOWS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE GULF THIS MORNING
BUT EVEN THE WINDWARD STATIONS ARE SEEING LITTLE PRECIP FROM THESE.
TWO MINOR SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME WEATHER...ONE OVER
THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY AND HAS BEEN
CAUSING BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW FOR THIS REGION.  THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
IS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND IS MOVING TOWARD CORDOVA...THIS
SHOULD BRING MORE PRECIP FOR THE COPPER RIVER DELTA BY LATER THIS
EVENING.  ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT
WAY FOR THE DAY.

OUT WEST...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND IS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY.  ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THIS TROUGH IS FAIRLY LOW
THE LACK OF MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW SNOW TO CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE FOR
THE BRISTOL BAY REGION AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.  ADVISORY LEVEL IS
NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER.  THE LOW TO THE WEST OF ST PAUL IS ALSO
CREEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
MEANS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRETTY CONVECTIVE. EXPECT UP TO AN
INCH AND SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM WHAT SEEMS LIKE AN INSIGNIFICANT
FEATURE.

MODEL DISCUSSION...AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS SITUATION MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE MULTIPLE LOWS AND SHORTWAVES.  WHILE BOTH
ETA AND GFS HAVE IDENTIFIED THE SURFACE LOW IN THE BERING THE TROUGH
LYING OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN COPPER
RIVER VALLEY ARE ALMOST INDISTINGUISHABLE.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT HOWEVER ON THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS.  RELY ON SATELLITE AND RADAR FOR TIMING ON TROUGH
PASSAGE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXTENDED MODEL RUN HAS NOT VARIED MUCH FROM PAST
RUNS...INSPIRING CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION.  GFS IS STILL CALLING
FOR A CHANGE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY MIDWEEK WHEN A STRONG RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE BERING AND PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA.  THIS SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
THE MAINLAND BY THE WEEKEND.  MEANWHILE A NEW LOW IS STILL EXPECTED
TO MOVE UP TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE ALEUTIANS AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 410
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEW JAN 06