Gale Warning 460, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 222307
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-231400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 
A 1004 MB LOW 275 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 325 NM NORTHWEST 
OF SHEMYA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-231400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-231400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-231400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-231400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-231400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-231400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-231400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-231400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-231400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-231400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-231400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-231400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT MON MAY 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...

ANALYSIS...SIGNIFICANT RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING.  A TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA.  A CLOSED COLD CORE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA ALLEVIATING THE COASTAL RAIN AND CLOUDINESS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP
ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA.  A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN ALASKA BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO UPPER
YUKON VALLEY.  SATELLITE CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A WIDE AREA OF
STRATUS AND FOG UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING.

MODEL ANALYSIS...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  MODELS FINALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING
THE RIDGE INTO THE INTERIOR BUT VARY WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WED/THU.

SHORT-TERM FORECAST...GENERAL TREND OF WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS
IN FROM OVER THE BERING.  DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE ALASKA
RANGE AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.  THESE SAME WINDS PRODUCED BY
THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND THE LOW SPINNING SOUTH OF THE GULF WILL BRING HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA NECESSITATING THE CURRENT FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONES 141 AND 145.  OUT WEST EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS
TO INCREASE UNDER THE RIDGE...CEILINGS HAVE BEEN MVFR OR LESS OVER
THE PRIBILOFS THE LAST 24 HOURS.  LOW CEILING LOOKS NOT TO MOVE
INLAND WITH SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN COAST.  A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA TO INCLUDE THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE AKPENN CAUSED BY A LOW IN THE GULF AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS.  GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE MARINE ZONES IN
THIS AREA.  CONVECTION OVER WESTERN ALASKA SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING UNDER THE
RIDGE.  HOWEVER HAVE NOT RULED OUT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
MATSU VALLEY..ANCHORAGE BOWL..AND COPPER RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY
MIDWEEK WITH SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
SURFACE INSTABILITY FROM LATE SPRING SUN ANGLE SHOULD BE AMPLE...BUT
DRYNESS REMAINS THE CONTENTIOUS VARIABLE.

EXTENDED FORECAST...WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY THE RULE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.  LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE THE POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH COMPLEX OVER THE GULF BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHEAST BY WEEKS END AS THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS MAKES ROOM FOR A WEAK LOW TO ENTER THE
WESTERN GULF AND PULLS A LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING ZONE 155
MARINE...GALES 130 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING ZONE 111 141 AND 145 MON AFTN AND
EVE.

SDM/SB MAY 06