Gale Warning 444, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SAT MAY 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...

LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE. APPEARS LOW WAVE NUMBER ENERGY
THAT HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE IS SHIFTING TO
THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WITH A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER
ALASKA. IF THE TREND CONTINUES SNOW MELT WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS COMING WEEK DRYING OUT THE
VEGETATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEXT WEEKEND AND THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.

FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL KUSKOKWIM VALLEY IS
BREAKING DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL ALASKA.
HOWEVER SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
ASHORE. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS CURRENT FORECAST IDEA OF SPLITTING
THE ENERGY AND DEVELOPING THE MAIN LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW IN THE WEST PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA TUESDAY BEFORE RECURVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO
EASTERN SIBERIA.

WEAK EASTERLY WAVE IN THE YUKON EXPECTED TO CREEP NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. POTENTIAL INSTABILITY NOT AS HIGH BUT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY FROM THE COPPER RIVER BASIN ACROSS
THE TALKEETNAS AND CHUGACH RANGE ON SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN REALLY NICE
OVER THE WEEKEND. WEST OF THE RIDGE VICINITY 155W WILL BE IN MOIST
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW. AS THE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE PACIFIC ON
SUNDAY LOOKING FOR A DRYING TREND ON THE MAINLAND WITH THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CAS MAY 06