Gale Warning 440, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT MON MAY 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD SPRING CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA.
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OCCURRED FROM
ANCHORAGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THE EASTERN KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AS WELL AS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS ALSO RECEIVED SNOWFALL. THE
TEMPERATURE ON ST PAUL ISLAND DROPPED TO 18 DEGREES THIS MORNING
AFTER THE SNOWFALL.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE CAUSING THESE LATE SEASON SNOW EVENTS IS THE
COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
COAST. THIS COLD TROUGH WITH THIS LOW COVERS THE ENTIRE STATE EXCEPT
FOR THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE. 500 MB TEMPERATURES WERE NEGATIVE
33 TO 34 C AT ANCHORAGE MCGRATH AND BETHEL THIS MORNING. THIS COLD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE UNTIL AROUND THURSDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE STATE FROM THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA. THIS RIDGE SHOWS HOPE FOR A WARM UP OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA
THIS WEEKEND BY FINALLY DISPLACING THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
HAS HAUNTED THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHERN ALASKA FOR MUCH OF THE
PREVIOUS FEW WEEKS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY OVERALL. THE ONE DIFFERENCE IS THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLANDS THAT WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ALL HAVE THE SAME GENERAL
SOLUTIONS BUT THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE AS TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE LOW BY WEDNESDAY. SINCE IT IS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA IT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAY 06