Gale Warning 419, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 012312
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT MON MAY 1 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 993 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO BRISTOL BAY BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND
DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 997 MB LOW 950 NM SOUTH OF ADAK 
WILL DEEPEN TO 982 MB 150 NM EAST OF KODIAK THURSDAY MORNING. 

$$

PKZ120-021400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT MON MAY 1 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-021400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT MON MAY 1 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-021400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT MON MAY 1 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATER THIS EVENING. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-021400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT MON MAY 1 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-021400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT MON MAY 1 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-021400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT MON MAY 1 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-021400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT MON MAY 1 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-021400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT MON MAY 1 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-021400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT MON MAY 1 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
530 AM ADT SUN APR 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS HIT NAIL ON HEAD REGARDING COLD UPPER
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS PICKING UP ON LARGER SCALE
FEATURES BUT MISSING THE SMALL VORTICES ROTATING AROUND ITS
PERIPHERY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PARENT LOW WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD YAKUTAT. UNTIL THEN ADJUSTMENTS
IN THE FORECAST WILL BE NECESSARY IN TIMING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ROGUE LOWS. OUT WEST ETA IS A BIT FAST ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW SOUTH OF ADAK. GFS AND UKMET IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS AND THEN ETA COMES INTO LINE AS A NEW LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF COLD BAY AND DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE AKPEN
BY WEDNESDAY. GFS WAS MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SOUTHCENTRAL SURFACE...TODAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAYS SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN COVERAGE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW TOWERING CUES DEVELOPING BY
NOON EVOLVING INTO ISOLATED CBS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AND THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAIN RANGES. VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO
DRIFT OVER THE VALLEYS BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT LARGE SWATH OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY LIKE WE WILL SEE LATER IN THE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER...AND
STILL NO MENTION OF THUNDER. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
TONIGHT. THE LATE NIGHT ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE MEANS MOST PRECIPITATION
COULD BEGIN AS SNOW IN PLACES LIKE KODIAK OVERNIGHT AND SEWARD AND
WHITTIER BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS NO SOURCE OF COLD AIR TO
BE DRAGGED DOWN SO SNOW WILL QUICKLY MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANCHORAGE AND THE WESTERN KENAI DOWNSLOPED WHICH ALSO MEANS
STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM.

OUT WEST...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OUT WEST WITH THE MAIN LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS THE FRONT SWINGS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AKPEN
MONDAY EVENING. IN THE MEAN TIME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING AND BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BERING SEA CARRYING
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 138 150 155 160 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB APR 06