Gale Warning 406, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 011152
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT MON MAY 1 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-020200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND INLAND
TUESDAY. A 994 MB LOW 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO BRISTOL BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. 
$$

PKZ120-020200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT MON MAY 1 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-020200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT MON MAY 1 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-020200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT MON MAY 1 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-020200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT MON MAY 1 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-020200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT MON MAY 1 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-020200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT MON MAY 1 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-020200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT MON MAY 1 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-020200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT MON MAY 1 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-020200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT MON MAY 1 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
530 AM ADT SUN APR 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS HIT NAIL ON HEAD REGARDING COLD UPPER
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS PICKING UP ON LARGER SCALE
FEATURES BUT MISSING THE SMALL VORTICES ROTATING AROUND ITS
PERIPHERY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PARENT LOW WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD YAKUTAT. UNTIL THEN ADJUSTMENTS
IN THE FORECAST WILL BE NECESSARY IN TIMING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ROGUE LOWS. OUT WEST ETA IS A BIT FAST ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW SOUTH OF ADAK. GFS AND UKMET IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS AND THEN ETA COMES INTO LINE AS A NEW LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF COLD BAY AND DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE AKPEN
BY WEDNESDAY. GFS WAS MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SOUTHCENTRAL SURFACE...TODAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAYS SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN COVERAGE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW TOWERING CUES DEVELOPING BY
NOON EVOLVING INTO ISOLATED CBS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AND THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAIN RANGES. VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO
DRIFT OVER THE VALLEYS BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT LARGE SWATH OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY LIKE WE WILL SEE LATER IN THE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER...AND
STILL NO MENTION OF THUNDER. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
TONIGHT. THE LATE NIGHT ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE MEANS MOST PRECIPITATION
COULD BEGIN AS SNOW IN PLACES LIKE KODIAK OVERNIGHT AND SEWARD AND
WHITTIER BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS NO SOURCE OF COLD AIR TO
BE DRAGGED DOWN SO SNOW WILL QUICKLY MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANCHORAGE AND THE WESTERN KENAI DOWNSLOPED WHICH ALSO MEANS
STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM.

OUT WEST...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OUT WEST WITH THE MAIN LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS THE FRONT SWINGS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AKPEN
MONDAY EVENING. IN THE MEAN TIME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING AND BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BERING SEA CARRYING
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 138 150 155 160 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB APR 06