Gale Warning 399, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT THU APR 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY. HOWEVER STILL HAVE
MORE FAITH IN THE UKMET AND GFS. GFS HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE
PRIOR RUN OF THE UKMET KEEPING THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH BETWEEN SEWARD
AND KODIAK. THE WEDGE OF COLD AIR OVER MAINLAND AK SUPPORTS THIS
SOLUTION.

THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE ALEUTIANS IS CURRENTLY SPINNING
FAR SOUTH OF KODIAK. AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO THE GULF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL REDEVELOP. THE UKMET IS PROBABLY MOST ACCURATE IN
REPRESENTING TWO LOWS IN THE GULF DURING REDEVELOPMENT. GFS IS TRYING
TO REFLECT THIS BUT IS HAVING TROUBLE OVERCOMING ITS BIAS OF PUTTING
ALL THE ENERGY IN ONE PLACE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PRODUCER OVER THE AOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

IN THE EAST..SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER TURNAGAIN ARM AS THE
LOW MOVES NORTH AND REDEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL TO A MINIMUM WITH JUST A STRAY SHOWER EXPECTED. AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS MORNING..RAIN
AND SNOW REMAIN LIKELY OVER KODIAK..THE SOUTHERN KENAI..AND POSSIBLY
CORDOVA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED NORTH
OF TALKEETNA AND INTO THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY TODAY.

IN THE WEST..A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BERING
TODAY AS A RIDGE DOMINATES IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
MODELS ARE NOT CLEAR REGARDING A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS AND FRONTS TO
THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A STRAY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT IN BRISTOL BAY AND
THE AK PENN TODAY. NORTH OF THE FRONT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MORNING FOG OVER THE MAINLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A BREAK IN THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR COMING DOWN FROM RUSSIA
INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AK. THE ALEUTIANS MAY SEE A BRIEF WARM UP BY
LATE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 138 150 155 165 170 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RW APR 06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1045 PM ADT WED APR 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     BLIZZARD         UNALASKA                53.93N 166.51W
04/26/2006                                      AK   AIRPLANE PILOT

            WIND GUST TO 44KTS WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 1 STATUE
            MILE.

0336 PM     AVALANCHE        UNALASKA                53.93N 166.51W
04/26/2006                                      AK   ASOS

            WIND GUST TO 44KTS WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 1 STATUE
            MILE.

&&

SDM