Gale Warning 382, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT WED APR 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS...THE GFS INITIALIZED BEST FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN LOW FOR
BOTH POSITION AND DEPTH.  BOTH THE GFS AND ETA ARE SLOW TO PICK UP
THE DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW NEAR COLD BAY LATE THU.  THE UK MET
PICKS THE FEATURE UP WELL AND IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE LATE THU AND
EARLY FRI.  BY FRI ALL THREE MODELS HAVE A LOW IN BRISTOL BAY.  THE
ETA SOLUTION IS PREFERRED FRI AS IT HAS BETTER DEFINITION FOR THE
FRONT IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE ONSHORE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEAST ALASKA TO COOK INLET.

EAST...MORE STABLE AND LESS SHOWERS TODAY AND THU.  STILL EXPECT
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY INLAND TODAY. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL SPREAD TO KODIAK ISLAND THU NIGHT AND TO THE NORTH GULF
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND FRI WITH THE FRONT.  GALES LIKELY IN THE
WESTERN GULF AND GAP WINDS IN SOUTH CENTRAL FRI.

WEST...RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT THEN TO BRISTOL BAY AND
KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE THU WITH THE FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS WEST OF THE FRONT TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 410 179 176 120 130 350
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 410 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RHH APR 06