Gale Warning 373, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SAT APR 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON BRING LARGE AMOUNT OF SUNNY SKIES TO THE
REGION. A LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
THEN DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CAUSING GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING THE THE SOUTH CENTRAL AREA. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND THE RIDGE ALSO BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BEGINS TO INVADE THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

IN THE WEST A STRONG LOW NORTH OF ATTU IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO
THE BERING SEA AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A PRESSURE NEAR 968 MB. HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE IN
EFFECT IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS SUNDAY AS THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY CRANK UP THE
WINDS IN THOSE AREAS.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN FROM THIS STORM IS IN BRISTOL BAY. SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES COULD OCCUR FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA.
SNOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20 TO LOWER 30S WHEN THIS OCCURS...A LARGE
WARM UP FROM THE ONE BELOW READING THIS MORNING IN BETHEL.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN TODAY IN HANDLING BOTH THE LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA THAT WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THIS TIME SUNDAY AND THE
LARGE LOW IN THE BERING SEA THAT IS THE SOURCE OF THE HIGH WIND
WARNINGS. THE ONLY ISSUE TO POINT OUT WITH THE MODELS IS THAT THE
WARM AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE BERING SEA LOW IS MUCH GREATER THAN
EITHER MODEL INDICATES. PRIBILOF ISLANDS HAVE WARMED TO RAIN AND
NEITHER MODELS HAD THEM GETTING THAT WARM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 185 187.
MARINE...GALE 132 150 155 160 165 171 179 180 185.
         STORM 170 172 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 06