Gale Warning 368, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT FRI APR 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE BERING WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING. THESE FEATURES CORRESPOND TO A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER 180 OUT
IN THE BERING. STRONG NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
AKPEN AND SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE GULF LOW SOUTHEAST TO
VANCOUVER ISLAND BY SAT NIGHT. A LOW CENTER DEVELOPS IN THE RESIDUAL
TROUGH NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WHICH REMAINS STATIONARY BEFORE
DISSIPATING SUN AFTERNOON. EXCEPT FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WRANGELLS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING MOVES TOWARD WESTERN ALASKA
SAT. MEANWHILE THE GRADIENT OVER THE AKPEN REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT
FOR STRONG NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND
OVER KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH SAT. THE DRY RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA FOR SAT.

IN THE WEST... A LOW MOVING ALONG THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TODAY
BRINGS WEATHER FRONTS ACROSS THE BERING TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ALEUTIANS. GALE FORCE
SOUTH WIND WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS SAT AND
THE AKPEN SUN. BEHIND THE FRONT GALES AND STORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE BERING AND CHAIN SAT THROUGH MON.

BY LATE SUN A SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AKPEN WITH MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF AND COLD NORTH FLOW OVER THE BERING.
AS THE LOW PIVOTS INTO THE GULF MON...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER THE GULF BUT REMAIN AS SNOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. DRY COLD ADVECTION WILL CUT OFF PRECIP LATER ON MON
IN THE WEST...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AK RANGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER FRONT
AFFECTS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
TUE AND WED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 130 132 150 155 165 170 172 175 176 185 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 150 160 165 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS APR 06