Gale Warning 351, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NOON PM ADT WED APR 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - VERY SPRINGLIKE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG 150W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
ALONG 170W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW COMPLEX OF A PAIR
OF 996 MB CENTERS NEAR MIDDLETON AND WELL SOUTH. THE ARCTIC FRONT
REMAINS N OF THE ALASKA RANGE. A WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE TROUGH HAS BECOME DEFORMED OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND INTO
THE COPPER BASIN THIS MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS SOUTH AND SNOW TO THE
BASIN. A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE NOW OVER
THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGE BUT APPEARS QUITE DRY FROM SATELLITE RADAR
AND OBS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS IN ZONE 145. OUT WEST ANOTHER EXTENSIVE
LOW COMPLEX WITH A 976 MB CENTER OFF SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA HAS MOVED A
FRONT INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. TWO JETS ARE OFF ASIA THIS MORNING
WITH INDIRECT CIRCULATIONS THAT WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP A 980 LOW JUST E
OF JAPAN.

AER FORECASTS - THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPOSED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER COOK
INLET TONIGHT SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED BUT AT MOST PRESENTS ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOOK FOR THE NW FLOW ALOFT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE TO CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE AREA ON THU BUT A NW JET 80-100 KT AT
250 MB WILL SUPPORT SOME WIND ALONG THE WESTERN GULF. NICE SPRING
WEATHER WILL OCCUR THU AND FRI AS THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST WITH A
PATTERN CHANGE FRI NIGHT INTO MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT.

ALU FORECASTS -  THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND THE RESULTANT WINDS ARE BARELY GALES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE FOR SOME PRETTY NICE
SPRING WEATHER. THE CHALLENGE IS TO CORRECTLY FORECAST THE STRENGTH
OF THE WIND AS THE BOMB OFF JAPAN DEEPENS TO 962 MB 50N 170E THU
AFTERNOON. THIS STORM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA BUT
THE GFS-190 SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER SW WIND APPROACHING 70 KT. A WATCH
IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR WIND. THE GFS HAS THE LOW CENTER TRACK TO
JUST OFF CAPE ROMANZOF BY 00Z SUN WHICH COULD GIVE SIGNIFICANT
ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE SW COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE. (STAY TUNED FOR ALEUTIAN ZONES)
MARINE...GALES 130 172 175 176 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC APR 06