Gale Warning 288, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON MAR 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW OVER ALASKA THIS
MORNING AND RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND KAMCHATKA...AND THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY IS
EXTENDING ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND INTO THE GULF...AND HIGH PRESSURE LIES
OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE BRISTOL BAY LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF LATER TODAY AND THEN DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH WED. THE BERING RIDGE MOVES TO WESTERN ALASKA
BY WED. A WEATHER FRONT FROM A LOW WEST OF KAMCHATKA MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN BERING TONIGHT AND STALLS TUE BEFORE REACHING THE PRIBILOFS.
A LOW ON THIS FRONT DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC TUE MORNING AND
RACES NORTH ALONG 180...REACHING EASTERN RUSSIA THU.

IN THE EAST...SNOW WILL LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AS THE BRISTOL BAY
LOW COMPLETES ITS CROSSING OF THE AKPEN LATER TODAY. WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE INLAND AREAS UNTIL THE LOW MOVES FURTHER SOUTH LATER ON TUE.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF SNOW AND RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
CHUGACH INTO THE COPPER RIVER...FLOW EARLY TODAY IS SUFFICIENTLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE MOUNTAINS TO INITIALLY DOWNSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN. THIS WILL CHANGE TONIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST...
ALLOWING MOISTURE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. BY LATER TUE THE LOW WILL
HAVE PULLED ITS MOISTURE OFFSHORE WITH INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

IN THE WEST...PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SPOTTY AS THE LOW EXITS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF
SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING TODAY AND REACH
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE WED.

FOR THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ADAK WILL
KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN ISLANDS AND PRIBILOFS TODAY. THESE WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST...WITH SHOWERS ENDING TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL BRING GALES AND RAIN ON SOUTH FLOW TO THE WESTERN
ISLANDS TODAY AND SMALL CRAFT AND RAIN TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT THROUGH WED.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE EAST WILL BE GENERALLY DRY WITH SOME CLOUDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE GULF LOW REACHING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
NEARBY PORTIONS OF THE CHUGACH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL BE UNDER DRY NORTH FLOW THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. THE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN WILL DISSIPATE WED NIGHT AS IT
REACHES THE PRIBILOFS. A LOW WILL MOVE NORTH NEAR ATKA THU AND BRING
A FRONT WITH SMALL CRAFT AND SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN ISLANDS AND
AKPEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. YET ANOTHER FRONT WITH SNOW AND
RAIN MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING FOR THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 185
         GALES 150 160 165 170 171 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS MAR 06