Gale Warning 236, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 031220
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST FRI MAR 3 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-040300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 974 MB LOW 340 NM WEST OF ATTU FRIDAY MORNING MOVES OVER NUNIVAK
ISLAND SATURDAY EVENING AT 981 MB.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND NEAR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY AND INTO BRISTOL BAY
SATURDAY. 

$$

PKZ150-040300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST FRI MAR 3 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-040300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST FRI MAR 3 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-040300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST FRI MAR 3 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-040300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST FRI MAR 3 2006

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-040300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST FRI MAR 3 2006

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-040300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST FRI MAR 3 2006

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-040300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST FRI MAR 3 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-040300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST FRI MAR 3 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-040300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST FRI MAR 3 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-040300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST FRI MAR 3 2006

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 26 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-040300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST FRI MAR 3 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 15 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-040300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST FRI MAR 3 2006

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST THU MAR 02 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAJOR FEATURE BEING LARGE COLD FRONTAL BAND
STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA THAT STEMS FROM WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW IN THE ANADYR GULF. SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT WINDS ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST AK COAST HAVE SUBSIDED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE
THE FRONT HAS YET TO MAKE IT THROUGH BETHEL...WHERE WINDS ARE STILL
SOUTH WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 1 MILE. THE STANDATD COLD AIR STRATOCU
ARE BEING OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE BERING SEA WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO STAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE PRIMARY FEATURE IS THE ANCHOR LOW CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BERING SEA/ANADYR GULF WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. TO THE EAST A RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE
TO THE ARCTIC.

UPPER LEVEL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS AROUND RIDGING IN
NORTHERN CANADA. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING DIGS SOUTH TODAY
BEFORE THE MAIN ENERGY BREAKS AWAY FROM THE ANCHOR LOW IN THE
NORTHWEST BERING AND IS SHUNTED SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM AK BY THE
250MB JET ON FRI. THE REMAINING TROUGH STILL ATTACHED TO THE ANCHOR
LOW ROTATES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL AK SAT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM. THIS UPPER LOW MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE BERING SEA
ON FRI BEFORE MOVING ASHORE OVER SOUTHWEST AK ON SAT EVENING AND
WEAKENING AS JET SUPPORT IS LOST. THE UPPER LOW ELONGATES OUT INTO A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

SURFACE...SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER AKPEN BY THIS EVENING AND MOVES
SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT DEPARTS AK WITH THE JET STREAM. WITH
MOST OF THE ENERGY BEING SITUATED WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK...IT
APPEARS THAT THE MAIN PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE FLURRIES IN THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL/MATSU VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. THE KENAI AND WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
ZONES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT RECEIVING SNOW AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE
LOW AS WELL AS ONSHORE RETURN FLOW AND LIMITED OVERUNNING. THE NEXT
BIG WEATHER MAKER IS THE WARM FRONTAL BAND THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TODAY AND INTO FRI AS A LARGE
DEVELOPING LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING. LOOK FOR STORM FORCE
WINDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE BERING ON FRI IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE LOW. LOOK FOR PRECIP TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS LOW MAKES LANDFALL OVER SOUTHWEST AK
SAT NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 150 155 170 172 175 179 185
         STORM 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

WOOD FEB 06