Gale Warning 233, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 020034
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST WED MAR 1 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1004 MB LOW OVER COLD BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOVES TO 500 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KODIAK LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  A WEATHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GULF ON THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.
$$

PKZ120-021500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST WED MAR 1 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-021500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST WED MAR 1 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO N 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-021500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST WED MAR 1 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO
N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-021500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST WED MAR 1 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO W 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-021500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST WED MAR 1 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THU NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO 
VARIABLE 15 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-021500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST WED MAR 1 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-021500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST WED MAR 1 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS BECOMING S 20 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 F.T
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-021500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST WED MAR 1 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO 
VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-021500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST WED MAR 1 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED MAR 01 2006

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN HAS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SURFACE HIGHS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AK AND SOUTH OF THE AK PEN AROUND 45N. A DECAYING LOW IS
SPINNING DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WHILE IN THE WEST THE
DOMINANT FEATURE IS A LARGE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE ANADYR GULF WITH A
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS THE HIGH IMPACT HAZARD OF THE DAY WITH STRONG
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE Y K DELTA...IN FACT GUSTS TO 50 KTS ARE
CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT CAPE ROMANZOF. WITH AN AMPLE MOISTURE
PRESENT...HIGH WINDS AND SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BRING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BEING ALONG THE COAST AND NUNIVAK ISLAND AS THE FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE. THE STANDARD REGIME OF COLD ADVECTION INSTABILITY SNOW
SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA BEHIND THE
FRONT.

EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE Y K
DELTA AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
FRONT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS TIGHT FARTHER SOUTH ALONG BRISTOL
BAY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS THERE WILL STILL BE BREEZY ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE IT SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL
APART BY THU MORNING.

IN THE MEANTIME A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THU MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER VORTMAX MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AK PEN. BY EARLY
FRI MORNING A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS EVIDENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE WITH
AN AXIS RUNNING EAST TO WEST FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO
INTERIOR AK. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TURNS INTO A CUTOFF LOW AND GETS
CARRIED SOUTHEAST AROUND THIS RIDGE ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY THE
WESTERLIES...THUS MISSING SOUTHCENTRAL AK AND ALLOWING IT TO STAY DRY
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINING ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANCHOR
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING ROTATES ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AK ON LATE FRI AND INTO SAT...ALLOWING FOR CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THE NEXT MAJOR
SYSTEM GETS SHUNTED ACROSS THE BERING SEA FRIDAY WITH A FRONT RAKING
THE ALEUTIANS BEFORE THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE Y K DELTA
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155
MARINE...GALE 121 155 170 172 176 179 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 140 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

WOOD FEB 06