Gale Warning 189, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AST THU FEB 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. GFS MODEL OF CHOICE WEST OF 160W.
UKMET ETA MODELS OF CHOICE EAST OF 160W.

UPPER LEVELS...
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE TODAY. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
BERING SEA...ALASKA...AND GULF WILL COME TO AND END. WEAK SHORT WAVE
OVER WESTERN ALASKA AMPLIFIES AND MOVES INTO GULF OF ALASKA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ALASKA
MAINLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
A NEW 1024 MB SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON IN SYMPATHY TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND KODIAK ISLAND TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW EXPECTED...EXCEPT UP
TO 3 INCHES ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA.
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY TO 1021 MB 150 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND
THU NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE 90 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT BY SAT MORNING.

SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND...
A 1021 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE OVER THE WESTERN LOWER YUKON VALLEY WILL

DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THIS MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE TODAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND NEAR LAKE ILIAMNA.
GOOD CLEARING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SUNNY BREAKS DEVELOPING ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY...KUSKOKWIM DELTA...AND WESTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON.

WEST OF 160W...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
STRATUS AND FOG THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
ALEUTIAN CHAIN.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA CONTINUING THIS MORNING AS
GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS.
A WEATHER FRONT EAST OF KAMCHATKA WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING
SEA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 132 175 176 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB FEB 06