Gale Warning 187, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 230049
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST WED FEB 22 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A 1025 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR HOMER THU MORNING THEN MOVE
TO 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK FRI AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-231500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST WED FEB 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-231500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST WED FEB 22 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-231500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST WED FEB 22 2006

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. STRONGER WINDS 20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT IN
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT WITH STRONGER WINDS TO 25 KT IN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT WITH STRONGER WINDS TO 25 KT IN
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-231500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST WED FEB 22 2006

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-231500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST WED FEB 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-231500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST WED FEB 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-231500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST WED FEB 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-231500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST WED FEB 22 2006

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SOUTH OF CLAM GULCH...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 4 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-231500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST WED FEB 22 2006

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED FEB 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. GFS MODEL OF CHOICE WEST OF
160W. UKMET OR ETA SOLUTION PREFERRED EAST OF 160W.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...
BROAD ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. LONG WAVE
TROF ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN ALASKA WED EVENING...THEN
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. TROF IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM
BETTLES TO KODIAK CITY BY THU AFTERNOON. TROF FURTHER
AMPLIFIES...BECOMING A CLOSED H523 LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA NEAR FRI AFTERNOON.

SFC FEATURES ALU DOMAIN...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
A 1014 MB LOW 270 NM WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE INLAND
NEAR EMMONAK WED EVENING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. THIS WILL
BE MAINLY A WIND EVENT FOR THE BERING SEA. LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO HELP YIELD OVER 3 INCHES OF
FRESH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE EASTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ON THURSDAY.

SFC FEATURES AER DOMAIN...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE GULF
THROUGH WED NIGHT.
A 1023 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR HOMER THU MORNING AND STRENGTHENS TO
1017 IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA LATE THU NIGHT. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND NORTH GULF COAST THU
MORNING AND CONTINUES THROUGH THU NIGHT.

COMING ATTRACTIONS...
A LARGE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE
RUSSIAN FAR EAST THU EVENING. GALES DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN BERING
AS EARLY AS LATE THU NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SUPPORTIVE OF
STEERING THIS LOW COMPLEX NORTHWESTWARD...INTO THE CHUCKCHI SEA AND
NORTHERN ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 150 155 176 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB FEB 06