Gale Warning 163, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST SAT FEB 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...PRETTY MUCH A 3 WAVE PATTERN ON THE MORNING MODELS WITH
A REX BLOCK TRYING TO FORM ALONG 140W AFTER 72 HRS. NOTICED THIS RUN
IS QUITE WEAKER THAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON RUN WITH THE WARM AIR MOVING
NORTH OVER THE BERING SEA AND MAINLAND AK. YESTERDAY THE GFS BROUGHT
THE ZERO DEGREE 850 LINE ALL THE WAY TO BARROW...TODAY IT ONLY GETS
TO ANCHORAGE. AM ASKING FORECASTERS TO HOLD BACK A LITTLE ON THE
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO SEE IF THE NEXT RUNS WEAKEN EVEN MORE.

A LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ETA AND GFS IN THE GULF WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN LOW. EAST DESK GOING WITH ETA AND WEST WITH
GFS. SHOULD BE A PRETTY EASY BLEND AS THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA.

WINDY THIS MORNING AROUND THE NORTH GULF COAST.  ISSUED HIGH WIND
WARNINGS FOR CORDOVA CITY AND THE PORTAGE AREA. CORDOVA HAS VERIFIED
FROM SPOTTER CALLS. PATO IS UP AND DOWN BUT SHOULD VERIFY AS THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.

RFC PEOPLE WANT TO KEEP THE SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY UP UNTIL IT
STOPS RAINING OVER THERE...MAYBE EVEN LONGER WITH THE HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 125 AND 135.
MARINE...STORM 120 132 150 175 176.
         GALES 125 130 138 155 165 170 171 172 179 180 185.

AFC FEB 06