Gale Warning 146, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
255 PM AST MON FEB 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTH THROUGH BRISTOL BAY TODAY. THIS SHORT
WAVE TO SPLIT WITH ONE PORTION HEADING TO THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND
ANOTHER CIRCULATING BACK INTO THE PARENT LOW OVER THE BERING SEA.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING UP JET STREAM WHICH IS SITUATED ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF TO MOVE TOWARD THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND INLAND TUESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE BERING SEA. THIS WAVE WILL
WORK NORTH TO BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE WORKS AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS LAST WAVE TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN FRIDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
RETROGRADES TO KAMCHATKA. YET ANOTHER LOW ROTATES UNDER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIAN LOW FRIDAY AND TO KODIAK SATURDAY. THIS PUSHES THE EASTERN
ALEUTIAN LOW BACK TO THE PARENT LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY INLAND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL. STRONG WINDS MADE IT THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DROP BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AS THE FRONT WEAKENS INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH TOMORROW...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PICK UP TOMORROW. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE LOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA LIFTS TO THE BERING
STRAIT TUESDAY WITH A STACKED LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA.
PRECIPITATION TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND LEAVE THE
AREA TOMORROW AS A RESULT. AS THE STACKED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO MOVE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA. HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY TO THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND MODERATE WINDS TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. AS
ALL THIS IS GOING ON...A STRONG LOW MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN
CHAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THIS LOW TO WORK NORTH THROUGH THE
GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TOWARD KODIAK. THIS
SCENARIO WILL BRING ANOTHER STRONG FRONT THE GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BY FRIDAY. STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE ROCKIES AT
THIS TIME WILL IMPEDE ANY EASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE MAIN LOW IN THE
BRISTOL BAY. ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY TO RIDE UP THE JET STREAM NORTH
THROUGH THE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101
         BLIZZARD WARNING 195
MARINE...GALE 121 125 129 130 132 138 140 155 165 170 172 176 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN FEB 06