Gale Warning 125, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
230 PM AST WED FEB 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...MODEL SYNOPTIC INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT AND REASONABLE. GFS WITH SOME MODIFICATION WILL BE
USED IN AFTERNOON PACKAGES.

.EAST DOMAIN...A 969 MB LOW JUST SE OF SEWARD WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN END OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT INITIALLY PICKED UP WELL BY
GFS/ETA MODELS. SAT IMAGERY SHOWERS WELL DEFINED MOISTURE ADVECTION
WITH THIS CENTER. EXPECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AREA. COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS OVER KACHEMAK
BAY WITH BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS AND ACCOMPANYING SNOW SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SNOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH GULF THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW OVER WESTERN SOUND
WEAKENS THROUGH THU AND DRIFTS TO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND THU EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THU NIGHT..SO EXPECT PATCHY FOG
AND COOLER TEMPS UNDER CLEARING SKIES. STORM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA SAT WILL BRING BRISK SELY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS TO
SOUTHCENTRAL.

.WEST...LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX MOVING SE FROM THE RUSSIAN COAST MOVES
TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND WITH A PRESSURE IN THE MID 980S THU MORNING.
THIS CENTER MOVES OVER THE YUKON DELTA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
OVER NORTON SOUND EARLY FRI MORNING. EXPECT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS SW
MAINLAND THU/THU NIGHT WITH ONSET OF SW FLOW. DEVELOPING NORTH
PACIFIC STORM MOVES TO OVER DUTCH HARBOR FRI AFTERNOON AND TO NEAR
NUNIVAK ISLAND SAT EVENING. EXPECT STRONG SE WINDS AHEAD OF CENTER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NUMEROUS ADVISORIES.
MARINE...GALES 130 160 165 172 175 AND 176.

RMC FEB 06