Gale Warning 1064, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST FRI DEC 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE EAST...FOR THE SECOND TIME IN JUST OVER A WEEK A LOW WITH A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 944 MB HAS MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE STRUCTURE OF THIS LOW AND WHERE IT WILL COME ON SHORE ARE
A LITTLE DIFFERENT BUT THESE ARE TWO VERY STRONG LOWS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THE LOW IS EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AND HEADING FOR
LANDFALL NEAR CORDOVA THIS EVENING. IT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUND OVERNIGHT AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN. ONE DIFFERENCE WITH THIS
LOW AND THE ONES LAST WEEK IS THAT THERE IS A LOT MORE WARM AIR IN
THIS ONE. MIDDLETON ISLAND HAS BEEN IN THE MID 40S AND CORDOVA IN THE
LOWER 40S. THE COLD AIR IN MOVING INTO THE SYSTEM AND THE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THERE WAY DOWN FROM HERE ON OUT. THE RAIN
IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA SHOULD TURN TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. SO EVEN THE AREAS THAT HAVE
HAD SOME RAIN SHOULD SEE IT TURN TO SNOW BEFORE THIS SYSTEM IS
THROUGH.

IN THE WEST...THE GULF LOW IS NOT MAKING IT VERY FAR PAST THE ALASKA
RANGE AND ASIDE FROM A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE IMPACT IN THE WEST FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA
WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONG
STORM MOVES INTO THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MOVES
INTO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS WELL AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TURN TO MOSTLY RAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BY TOMORROW EVENING.

IN THE LONGER TERM...SOME VERY INTERESTING WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW DEVELOPING ON THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE ALEUTIAN
LOW WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BRINGING A BIT OF
PRECIPITATION AND WINTER WEATHER TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AT THAT
TIME.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. IN THE LONGER TERM THE
GFS AND NAM ARE VERY CLOSE BUT THEIR EUROPEAN COUNTERPARTS THE UKMET
AND ECMWF ARE VERY DIFFERENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 131 191.
         HIGH WIND WATCH 187.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 155 165 171.
         STORM 170 172 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 06