Gale Warning 1031, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST WED DEC 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA. A STRONG
LOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS.

SOUTH CENTRAL...SNOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AS
MOISTURE FROM THE LOW GETS SQUEEZED OUT. SOME COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THIS LOW...BUT NOT REAL STRONG. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING OR TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
A FAIRLY DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AND/OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISAGREE AS TO THE STRENGTH...
LOCATION...AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...BUT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AROUND. ANOTHER BIG LOW ON
THE WAY FOR FRIDAY...OR FRIDAY NIGHT...OR MAYBE SATURDAY. LIKELY
ANOTHER BIG WEATHER PRODUCER...BUT DETAILS ARE STILL SKETCHY.

SOUTHWEST AND ALEUTIANS/BERING...VERY COLD AIR POURING OFF OF
SIBERIA INTO THE BERING SEA. FAIRLY INTENSE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
OVER THE (COMPARATIVELY) WARM WATER. SOME SHOWERS ARE ORGANIZING
INTO LITTLE MESO-LOWS THAT HAVE BEEN PRODUCING BLIZZARD LIKE
CONDITIONS. THE OVER ALL PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SOME MODERATING POSSIBLE BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS A RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE FAR WESTERN
BERING SEA.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MEAN UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LOCKED OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA. SO THE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 131.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG DEC 06