Gale Warning 1009, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...

EAST DOMAIN. WEAKENING SURFACE LOW DRIFTING NORTHWEST ACROSS LOWER
COOK INLET THIS EVENING WILL FILL RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. STRONG EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND TURNAGAIN ARM ARE
DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH FILLING LOW AND THE
RAIN AND SNOW WILL TAPER OFF. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA EARLY WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED DIFFLUENT TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL UNDER THE ENHANCED VERTICAL MOTION. RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA ON FRIDAY WILL RAPIDLY PUSH
EASTWARD LEAVING THE REGION IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WEST DOMAIN. SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS RAPIDLY TRANSITING THE AREA UNDER
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. NEXT BIG SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN BERING EARLY
FRIDAY THAT WILL BUILD THE RIDGE UP IN ADVANCE UNDER THE WARM
ADVECTION. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL COVER MOST OF THE
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

MODEL. THE NAM STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MODEL OF CHOICE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OVERNIGHT AS THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY PLACED TO LOW TOO FAR
TO THE WEST. HOWEVER THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE IN THE WEST AS
THE NAM APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 6 HOURS TOO SLOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE WESTERN BERING SEA LOW AND FRONT ON FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 150. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 160 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CAS DEC 06