Gale Warning 1007, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 122013 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

UPDATED ZONE 129 

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-130300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 973 MB LOW 85 NM WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE INLAND
NEAR SEWARD TUE AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE. A 985 MB LOW WILL 
DEVELOP 60 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY TUE EVENING AND MOVE 
NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-130300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT OR LESS BY 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-130300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING. SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-130300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
GUSTS TO 50 KT THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS ALONG THE GULF THIS MORNING.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF 
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-130300-
PASSAGE CANAL
1100 AM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. SNOW.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-130300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-130300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO W WIND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-130300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-130300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS IN ICE FREE 
WATERS 3 FT. SNOW.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-130300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 130107 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

CORRECTED ZONE 140

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-131500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
WEAK 984 MB SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT NEAR KODIAK CITY AND
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TO AND SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TO NEAR CAPE SUCKLING AS A
9833 MB LOW THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-131500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-131500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT SE WIND 20 KT
SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD THIS EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-131500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO 
VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-131500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 
10 KT OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-131500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 8 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 13 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY KAMISHAK BAY WATERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-131500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 13 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-131500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 7 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-131500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO 
W WIND 15 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ141-131500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED  AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AST TUE DEC 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...

ANALYSIS..A WELL WRAPPED LOW NEAR SEWARD WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA TODAY. NAM INITIALIZED MOVEMENT WELL ON THIS SYSTEM.
A SECONDARY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING OUT FROM THE LOW
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS
AND MOVE NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 60 HRS. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND TO THE BERING STRAIT. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IS
PRESENT ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE BERING AND THEN ACROSS THE MAINLAND ON
FRIDAY. BEHIND THIS RIDGE WILL BE A RATHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE BERING ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALSO TEND TO PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS ARE VERY INCONSISTENT WITH BOTH
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS BERING LOW.

...FORECAST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THIS REGION REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
NUMEROUS LOW PRESSURES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ANOTHER LOW CENTER IS LIKELY TO FORM NEAR
KODIAK TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST LOW WEAKENS OVER THE KENAI. THIS
SECOND LOW WILL ALSO TRACK TO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND...MEANING
CONTINUED SNOW FOR COASTAL AREAS INTO THURSDAY. THE MATANUSKA VALLEY
TO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL TO THE WESTERN KENAI HAS A DECENT SHOT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS
VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHEN THE BEST SHOT WILL BE. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL FOR FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR AT LEAST COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

...SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FORECAST...
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND INVOLVES
DETERMINING WHERE A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SETS UP ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS. THE BAND IS PRESENTLY LOCATED FROM DILLINGHAM TO BETHEL. MODELS
KEEP THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CLOSE TO STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN PUSH THE BAND EAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY  ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THIS BAND AT THE MOMENT. GENERALLY UNSTABLE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY.

...BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS FORECAST...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ABUNDANT SNOW SHOWERS IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HEAVY ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHEN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE A
RATHER LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS ON THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 185
         GALE WARNING 120 125 150

RNW DEC 06