Brisk Wind Advisory 47, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AST FRI MAR 31 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE 150 KT JET SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS HAS SPLIT AROUND THE LOW NEAR
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. MODELS HAVE MOVED THE NORTH TO SOUTH COMPONENT
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER EAST THAN LAST NIGHT. A 65 KT NORTH SOUTH PIECE
WILL BACK UP ALONG THE AK RANGE IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND DOWN COOK
INLET. A COUPLE OF 500 MB VORT MAXES WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL EARLY TODAY. SOME CAA WILL ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN
SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE FACTORS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
INCREASE THE WINDS THROUGH THE AREA..POSSIBLY NEAR WARNING LEVELS IN
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL TODAY.

IN THE EAST..PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
THROUGH SUN MORNING. EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE DAY CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW TONIGHT AS THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER KODIAK THIS MORNING MOVES
NORTH INTO THE BARREN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
ALONG THE UPSLOPING EASTERN KENAI AT LEAST INLAND AND AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THIS IS A VERY WET SNOW SO BLOWING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A REAL THREAT. DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP A LOT OF THE PRECIP OUT OF
THE WESTERN KENAI AND ANCHORAGE BOWL. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF INCHES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE BY SUN AFTERNOON.

IN THE WEST..SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND TODAY AND
SAT. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. LOOK FOR THE BRIEF
RESPITE OVER THE ALEUTIANS TO END AS A WEATHER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW SOUTH OF SHEMYA SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE AK PENN
AND PRIBILOFS THROUGH SAT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AK PENN WITH
SOME WARMER TEMPS BUT CONTINUED PRECIP BY SUN AFTERNOON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW MAR 06