Brisk Wind Advisory 43, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST FRI MAR 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...WEATHER PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE STATE REMAIN
RELATIVELY STAGNANT. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA THE
PROTRUDES INTO WESTERN ALASKA IS KEEPING TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS FROM MAKING MUCH HEADWAY INTO THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE.
THE FIRST LOW IS IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SLOWLY MOVING WEST
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL CONVERGE WITH A
WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW FROM THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND SUSITNA VALLEY SATURDAY FROM
THIS SYSTEM AS IT COMBINES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THE DYNAMICS IN THIS SYSTEM ARE
WEAK BUT THEY COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION - ESPECIALLY IN
UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

OUT IN THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AREA THERE IS A WEAK LOW
IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE
SATURDAY WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BERING SEA. THIS FRONT IS WEAKENING AND SHOULD COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
BY SATURDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE FAR WESTERN AREAS IS A 982 MB LOW
JUST SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND LIE JUST
NORTH OF ATTU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT AROUND 988 MB. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING GALES INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING
SEA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE THAT IS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN ALASKA.

MODELS ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THIS MORNINGS RUNS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ MAR 06