Brisk Wind Advisory 42, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST THU MAR 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN THAT SOUTHERN
ALASKA HAS BEEN IN THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE CHANGING SOME AS WE HEAD
TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA WILL DIG OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH CENTRAL REGIONS OF
OF THE STATE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL THIS WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FROM WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING OF MOISTURE THAT IS BEING
PUSHED INTO THE STATE FROM THE GULF. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW AND
RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE
ANCHORAGE AND MAT-SU AREAS THIS WEEKEND.

IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
HOLDING FIRM OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA IS BREAKING DOWN AND WILL
LARGELY DISSIPATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW TRAVERSES FROM THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.
A NEW RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FORM TO THE WEST OF THIS LOW AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY. THE GFS AND WRF ARE IN LOCK-STEP
OUT WEST AND HAVE ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE WEAK LOWS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE ETA AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND WRF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172 176 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 06