Brisk Wind Advisory 39, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 160004
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST WED MAR 15 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-161500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA MOVES TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. A 974 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WEDNESDAY
EVENING MOVES TO 225 NM NORTH OF ADAK LATE FRIDAY MORNING AT 970 MB. 
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA.

$$

PKZ150-161500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST WED MAR 15 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-161500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST WED MAR 15 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-161500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST WED MAR 15 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW.  
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ165-161500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST WED MAR 15 2006

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-161500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST WED MAR 15 2006

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT.  
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT.  
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT.  
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT.  
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT.  
.MON...N WIND 20 KT.   

$$

PKZ170-161500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST WED MAR 15 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-161500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST WED MAR 15 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-161500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST WED MAR 15 2006

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO SW
50 KT TOWARD ADAK. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT EXCEPT BUILDING TO 12 FT
BERING SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT...EXCEPT SW 35 KT EAST OF ATKA. GUSTS TO 65 KT
WEST OF ATKA IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 26 FT...EXCEPT 17 FT
BERING SIDE. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 27 FT...EXCEPT 17 FT
BERING SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-161500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST WED MAR 15 2006

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO S 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 75 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 23 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-161500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST WED MAR 15 2006

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING N 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-161500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST WED MAR 15 2006

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW.  
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ179-161500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST WED MAR 15 2006

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SE 30 KT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST TUE MAR 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG WIND EVENT IS ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
THE REGION LIES BETWEEN A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING SEA AND A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE YUKON TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
IS PROVIDING LOTS OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS EVENT WITH HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT MIXING DOWNWARD. AT 1400 UTC THE GLENNALLEN WIND PROFILER
SHOWED 125 KT AT 350 MB. IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE IS A TIGHT
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION FROM CANADA
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR VALDEZ AND THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA WHERE WIND INSTRUMENTS HAVE REPORTED GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 92 MPH. WIND DAMAGE HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN VALDEZ. STRONG
WINDS ARE ALSO BEING FELT ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE
MATSU VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF TONIGHT AND WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE BERING
SEA RIDGE. THE LOSS OF THIS UPPER SUPPORT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SO THAT GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORMAL PLACES...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS
TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF PRECIP REMAINING OFFSHORE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND COLD NIGHT-TIME TEMPS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER WEEK.

OUT WEST AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA. IT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT PUSHES UP AGAINST THE RIDGE TO
THE EAST TONIGHT AND THEN WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN BERING ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF SOUTHWEST TO
REMAIN DRY. THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE BERING SEA REGION IS
CURRENTLY FORMING OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. DEVELOPMENT IS BEING
DRIVEN BY A 160 KT UPPER LEVEL JET HEADING STRAIGHT FOR THE
ALEUTIANS. THE NAM/GFS/UKMET ALL AGREE ON A TRIPLE POINT LOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND DEEPENING INTO THE LOW TO MID 960S AS IT
MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
NAM/UKMET SOLUTION FOR THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO
CONSENSUS. HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE
IS SOME DECENT COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SO
MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE WATCHES FURTHER OUT IN TIME. THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO EVALUATE THIS STORM SO WILL STICK WITH WATCHES
FOR NOW AND FINE TUNE THE FORECAST WITH THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 131 AND 135.
         HIGH WIND WATCH 187 AND 191.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 121 172 175 176 185.

SEB MAR 06