Brisk Wind Advisory 36, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
420 AM AST SUN MAR 05 2006

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK.
GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY AS IT INITIALIZED THE DEVELOPING LOW
MUCH BETTER THAN THE NAM.

THE LARGE LOW MOVING ONSHORE TODAY IN THE Y-K DELTA IS BEGINNING TO
BREAK APART. THE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND INTO
THE PRIBILOFS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP
ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AS
STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES IT ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY ALEUTIAN RANGE
THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND INTO THE SUSITNA
VALLEY. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL FOR AREAS NORTH
OF TALKEETNA. BY THIS AFTERNOON SOME AREAS OF MIXED PRECIP ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ESPECIALLY ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE
GLENN HWY ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPING. STILL WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW THROUGH MON MORNING AS WARMER OVERRUNNING
BEGINS TO OCCUR.

A STRONG LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER KODIAK ISLAND TODAY ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
PRODUCER OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT VERTICALLY STACKED IN THE MODELS THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MONDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN KENAI. A VORT MAX AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS LOW INITIALLY.
THIS WILL KICK UP SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY AND
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST BY MON AFTERNOON. THE BIG CONCERN OVER THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL IS THE EXACT POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW..WHETHER IT
STAYS JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUND OR MOVES INTO THE WESTERN SOUND..AND IF
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH
TO ENHANCE PRECIP. BEST CHANCE OF GREATER ACCUMULATIONS IN ANCHORAGE
AND THE MAT-SU WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE NEXT MODEL RUN FOR MORE PRECISE AMOUNTS.

EXPECT AREAS OF PRECIP ENHANCED FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA TODAY. IN
THE ALEUTIANS SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW RIDES THE
JET SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND THE LOW MOVING ONTO THE MAINLAND
DRAWS NW FLOW INTO THE BERING. BY TUE A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BRINGING MORE RAIN AND SNOW AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 132 160 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW MAR 06