Brisk Wind Advisory 29, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST TUE FEB 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
GFS INITIALIZED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE ETA PER MOISTURE AND MSLP
FIELDS THIS MORNING. THE ETA TENDED TO BE A BIT DEEPER WITH THE
CENTRAL PRESSURES AND THE MOISTURE FIELD WAS NOT CAPTURING THE
MULTIPLE LOW STRUCTURE IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. ANTICIPATE AS PER
PAST PERFORMANCE THAT THE GFS WILL HANDLE THE SPEED AND DEPTH OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. BETTER THAN THE ETA
THEREFORE...HAVE GONE MAINLY TO A GFS SOLUTION TODAY.

UPPER LEVELS...STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND AS WELL. A FEW SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THE STRONGEST ONE IS HEADED FOR THE
PANHANDLE AND WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS IS CURRENTLY
BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA. ONE OF THE STRONGER WAVES IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC NEAR 165W CURRENTLY TO SPLIT THIS EVENING. ONE PIECE IS
HEADED TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT PUSHING THROUGH THE EASTERN
BERING WEDNESDAY AND TO THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY. THE OTHER
ROUNDING INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS COMPLEX OF SYSTEMS IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TO
BUILD A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BY TOMORROW BUT
QUICKLY PUSHED EAST THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG VORT MAX/CLOSED
LOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TOWARD THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN AND TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN THURSDAY. THIS PUSHES THE LOW
IN THE BERING SEA BACK TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND ESTABLISHES
A NEW ANCHOR LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW TO ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW TO THE WESTERN
GULF SATURDAY AND TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE SOUTH CENTRAL...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE
PANHANDLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA EAST AND
NORTH. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...SNOW WILL END FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A RESIDIUAL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY
WITH A FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. STORM
FORCE WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH POSSIBLE HIGH GUSTS AS IT
CLOSES IN ON THE COAST. PRECIPITATION TO RESEMBLE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE
SCENARIO. THE LOW TO WASH OUT OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THOUGH.
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ALONG THE COAST FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT PUSHES TO THE COAST. A STRONGER LOW TO
WORK INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND
SATURDAY. AGAIN...STORM FORCE WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE PRECIPITATION
PATTERN TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT
CROSSES THE ALASKA RANGE INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...STACKED LOW OVER THE
WESTERN BERING WITH MODERATE WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF COLD BAY TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN TOMORROW AND TO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE EASTERN BERING AND THE
SOUTHWEST COAST. COMBINED WITH PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA TOMORROW. A
MAJOR LOW IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TO MOVE TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN THURSDAY. STORM
FORCE WINDS TO MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL FILL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE JET IS
FAR TO THE SOUTH AND HELPS A LOW INTO THE GULF. THIS LOW IN THE GULF
EVENTUALLY SWINGS INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SATURDAY. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE ENTIRE BERING SEA. IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW WORKS TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 130
         GALE 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 176 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN FEB 06