Brisk Wind Advisory 26, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SAT FEB 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - MAJOR WINTER STORM CENTER MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA SAT
MORNING. 500 MB SOUTH FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
SUN. SURFACE CENTER WAS 965 MB NEAR UNALASKA THIS MORNING 12Z BUT
BUOY 46075 ALSO 965 MB WITH A SECOND CENTER OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE PIX.
BOTH LOWS MERGING IN EASTERN BERING TODAY. OCCLUDED FRONT ALMOST TO
KODIAK ISLAND 18Z WITH PLENTY OF WIND AND MONDO WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT OVER SW ALASKA. CLEAR TO THE EAST OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND 18Z
WITH A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH CELL OVER THE ALCAN. UPPER RIDGE ALONG
140W AT 00Z SUN EXTENDING ACROSS N ALASKA TO BERING STRAIT. 500 MB
TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO AROUND -32C OVER S CENTRAL AND -36C OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. WESTERLY JET FROM KOREA UP TO 150 KT WITH A BROAD
EXIT AROUND 40N 160W.

AER FORECASTS - BIG CHANGE AND TUFF CALLS. SURFACE LOW CONFIGURATION
DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS. PREFERRED 12Z GFS-190 ON THIS SHIFT
WHICH AGREED WITH UKMET AND ECMWF. STRONGEST WIND NEAR TURNAGAIN ARM
NOW LOOKS LIKE MONDAY. QPFS IMPRESSIVE AND WARMING MOST AREAS CERTAIN
BUT CAN COLD AIR REMAIN IN COOK INLET? METHINKS THAT MONDAY IS THE
WARMEST DAY WITH A CHINOOK AND HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS OF DOWNSLOPE
BUT ALSO FREEZING RAIN AND SOME RAIN EAST. EXPECT A BIG MESS ON SUPER
BOWL SUNDAY FOR POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS. EXPECT SOME COOLING AFTER MID
DAY MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER PANC AS PER GFS. A SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS TO 960 MB S OF KODIAK ISLAND SUN EVENING WITH A BIG SLUG
OF WARM AIR FOR THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN
COOK INLET BY 00Z TUE AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT SW.

ALU FORECASTS - AS LONG AS THE PRIBILOFS ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
STORM BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. RADARS SHOW AREAS OF SNOW
MOVING INTO SW ALASKA AS TEMPS WARM UP THERE WITH SOME WIND. ALL
MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A REDUCTION IN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS
FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT AS SECONDARY LOWS DEVELOP
ON THE S SIDE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW 960 MB OVER PASN 12Z SUN. LOOK
FOR A WESTERLY REGIME DEVELOPING ON MON AS THE MAJOR UPPER LOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR 55N 175W IN THE BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 171. WINTER STORM WARNING 125.
         BLIZZARD WARNING 195. SNOW ADV 145. WINTER WX ADV 161.
         MARINE ASHFALL 130 140 (NEAR AUGUSTINE)
MARINE...STORM 120 130 132 150. HVY FRZ SPRAY 130
         GALES 125 129 138 140 141 155 160 170 172 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC FEB 06