Wind Advisory 9, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Big Stone County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Brown County, SD, Buffalo County, SD, Campbell County, SD, Clark County, SD, Codington County, SD, Corson County, SD, Day County, SD, Deuel County, SD, Dewey County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Grant County, SD, Hamlin County, SD, Hand County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Hyde County, SD, Jones County, SD, Lyman County, SD, Marshall County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Potter County, SD, Roberts County, SD, Spink County, SD, Stanley County, SD, Sully County, SD, Walworth County, SD

000 
WWUS73 KABR 311745
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1145 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006

.STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL...
AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-312200-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-060331T2200Z/
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHEATON...ORTONVILLE...MCLAUGHLIN...
HERREID...EUREKA...ABERDEEN...BRITTON...SISSETON...MOBRIDGE...
IPSWICH...WEBSTER...TIMBER LAKE...GETTYSBURG...FAULKTON...
REDFIELD...CLARK...WATERTOWN...MILBANK...CASTLEWOOD...
CLEAR LAKE...FORT PIERRE...ONIDA...PIERRE...HIGHMORE...MILLER...
MURDO...PRESHO...FORT THOMPSON
1145 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006 /1045 AM MST FRI MAR 31 2006/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA.

USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE DRIVING A HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLE.  SECURE ANY LOOSE ITEMS OUTSIDE OR BRING THEM
INDOORS.

$$
TDK

000 
WWUS73 KABR 312119
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
319 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006

.LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. 

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-312230-
/O.CAN.KABR.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-060331T2200Z/
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHEATON...ORTONVILLE...MCLAUGHLIN...
HERREID...EUREKA...ABERDEEN...BRITTON...SISSETON...MOBRIDGE...
IPSWICH...WEBSTER...TIMBER LAKE...GETTYSBURG...FAULKTON...
REDFIELD...CLARK...WATERTOWN...MILBANK...CASTLEWOOD...
CLEAR LAKE...FORT PIERRE...ONIDA...PIERRE...HIGHMORE...MILLER...
MURDO...PRESHO...FORT THOMPSON
319 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006 /219 PM MST FRI MAR 31 2006/

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY THROUGH ABOUT 5 OR 6PM CST...BUT
AFTER THAT WILL SUBSIDE VERY QUICKLY...AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

$$
TDK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
330 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON PRECIPITATION ENDING TODAY AND
WINDS TODAY.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING CENTER OF LOW SITUATED ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW STRATUS DECK STRETCHING
BACK INTO EASTERN WY/MT. HAVE A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ON RADAR
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN BEGIN TO PUSH EAST INTO MINNESOTA
AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES EAST. EXPECT FURTHEST WEST EXTENT OF PRECIP
INTO MCPHERSON COUNTY SOUTH TO HAND COUNTY THROUGH MID MORNING...AND
THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM
PULLING IN COLDER AIR HAS PRODUCED SOME SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT EXPECT LOW LEVEL TEMPS TO HOVER JUST AROUND FREEZING OR
ABOVE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH ALL LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES SHOW 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND
EXPECT A STEADY RAIN RESULTING IN ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES BEFORE
THE RAIN CEASES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS ALREADY BEING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA/STATE. EXCEPTION IS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THE
SFC LOW CENTER SITS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH MODELS ADVERTISING 35-45 KT WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. NAM ALSO SHOWING DECENT SFC PRESSURE RISES
OF 4 TO 6 MB ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 22Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. KEPT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA WITH MODELS SHOWING
HIGHER RH VALUES IN THE LOW LEVELS. ALWAYS HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH
LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OF EXTREME EASTERN CWA BEHIND EXITING
SYSTEMS ANYWAY. WITH ALL THE RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE CWA...MIGHT END UP WITH A SHALLOW STRATUS DECK
SITUATED ACROSS THE SISSETON HILLS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
ALSO WILL SEE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NAM/GFS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT FEEL THE GFS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. THEREFORE
DID NOT MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE GRIDS...AND KEPT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR THE EVENT. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WHERE MOISTURE FLOW IS BETTER
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA ALSO BECOMING SITUATED IN THE
WRAP-AROUND AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. DECENT AREA
OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS EASTERN CWA IS LOCATED UNDER LEFT-EXIT REGION
OF 100KT JET STREAK SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOWING SYSTEM EXITING BY
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA. HAVE EXTENDED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. MAY HAVE TO CHECK FOR PRECIP TYPE AS COLD
AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. 925/850MB TEMPS HOVER RIGHT NEAR
FREEZING OR JUST BELOW...SO MAY HAVE TO GO WITH A RA/SN OR -SN
WORDING IN THE FUTURE. FOR NOW LEFT AS RAIN WITH SFC TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM STILL DEALS WITH ACTIVE PATTERN
SETTING UP BY MID WEEK.

EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED...UPPER WAVE CONTS TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM
CWA WITH SUBSIDENCE TAKING PLACE OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY. 85H TEMPS
FALL BELOW ZERO MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING A SLIGHT
LOWERING OF TEMPS ACROSS THE NE CWA. BY TUESDAY MORNING...GOOD WAA
PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS CWA. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY 5H AND 7H RIDGES
MOVE EAST OF CWA WITH PWATS RETURN TO OVER 0.75 INCH BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE OPTED TO BACKPEDDLE SOME ON PCPN TIMING ON TUESDAY.
SFC LOW DOESNT REALLY STRENGTHEN UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...AND
30/18Z DGEX/CANADIAN AND EC HINT TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SYSTEM
PROGRESSION. HELD OFF UNTIL MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY BEFORE INTRO SLGT
CHC POPS...AND CHANGED THEM TO -TSRA GIVEN STRENGTH OF LEAD 7H
WAVE/TROF LIFTING NORTH THROUGH REGION.

REMAINDER OF EXTENDED REMAINS UNSETTLED AS MAIN 5H TROF/LOW LIFT
THROUGH REGION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH. STILL LOOKS LIKE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WILL BE BEST TIME FOR TSRA.
LATEST GFS SHOWS 100+KT JET PUNCHING INTO MIDWEST WITH CWA IN
FAVORABLE POSITION WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SEE
2H-3H LAYER. CONT TREND OF UPPING POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND NOW
SITTING AT HIGH CHC POPS.

WILDCARD THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD IS DRYSLOTTING. MODELS SUGGEST
WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ACROSS WRN CWA WED. ALSO OF CONCERN IS DRY
PERIOD SUGGESTED BY MODELS WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LEAD
SYSTEM EXITS AND MAIN SFC LOW/5H LOW LIFT NORTHWARD INTO REGION. FOR
NOW AM GOING TO CONT TO PAINT WITH A BROAD BRUSH IN THE WX GRIDS.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY ENTIRE SOUTH DAKOTA CWA THROUGH 22Z THIS
     AFTERNOON.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FOR BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES THROUGH 22Z
     THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

ALBRECHT/HINTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
850 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

MNZ039-311215-
TRAVERSE-
850 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH HALF.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
AWIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW AS HIGH ENERGY WIND ALOFT
MOVES DOWN TOMORROW MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

MNZ046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-311215-
BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-
GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-
BUFFALO-
850 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006 /750 PM MST THU MAR 30 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW AS HIGH ENERGY WIND ALOFT
MOVES DOWN TOMORROW MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KEEFE