Wind Advisory 3, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
330 AM CST THU JAN 26 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT RANGE ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
WINDS.  FOR TODAY NICE LOOKING WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL
CONTINUE EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM MAY TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST TRACK VS THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS.  MEANWHILE...IT WILL NOT HAVE A WEALTH OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY BELOW 700MB.  HOWEVER...DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOT TOO BAD WITH 500-300MB LAYER Q VECTORS LOOKING PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. BECAUSE OF THE DECENT DYNAMICS I DECIDED I COULD NOT
TOTALLY IGNORE THE SYSTEM.  SO...FOR A HEDGE DECIDED ON NON
MEASURABLE POPS WITH A MENTION OF SPRINKLES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY VIRGA
OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AS PLUME OF
STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA.  WIND
WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM IN THE TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS
ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA TODAY.  HOWEVER WOULD APPEAR
THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET...SO NO HIGHLIGHTS AT
THIS TIME.  GUSTY WINDS SHOULD HELP WITH MIXING BUT STILL FELT
COMPELLED TO STAY CLOSE TO MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS GIVEN THAT WINDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE FROM THE SOUTH WITHOUT MUCH OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR...EVEN OVER THE
SNOWPACKED NORTHEAST CORNER OF SOUTH DAKOTA.  SPEAKING OF THE SNOW
PACK AREA...HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER THIS REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.  RECENT TEMPERATURE VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN THAT THE
SNOW HAS REMAINDED EFFECTIVE AT KEEPING THE MERCURY DOWN OVER THIS
REGION.  FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT.  BUT
BY LATE SATURDAY NEXT APPROACHING WAVE COULD SPREAD LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.  FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT MENTION
OVER THE EASTERN CWA WHERE ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF COMING TOGETHER.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS GRIDS AS
RATHER MILD AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
STILL LOOKS LIKE A WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALREADY IN GRIDS. ADDED MIX POSSIBILITY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE RATHER MILD FOR JANUARY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
MON BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON TUE. MEX
GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MON HIGHS. HAVE INCREASED
TEMPS A BIT ON MON...BUT NOT AS DRASTIC AS MEX. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES AND TEMPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED FURTHER IF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. TUE SYSTEM SLIDES
QUICKLY ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE STATE. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND SYSTEM AS THIS IS YET
ANOTHER OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. REMOVED POPS FOR TUE NIGHT AS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE A QUICK MOVER AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THEN.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

TDK/TMT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
438 AM CST THU JAN 26 2006

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-271045-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
438 AM CST THU JAN 26 2006 /338 AM MST THU JAN 26 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TDK