Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
330 PM CDT MON JUN 5 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
CONCERNS CENTER AROUND CONVECTION OCCURRING NOW INTO THIS
EVENING...AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NWRN ND AND SRN SASK...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NRN MINNESOTA...INTO ERN ND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE JUST TO THE EAST OF KABR...AND
STRETCHING SOUTHWEST THROUGH HAND COUNTY TO JUST WEST OF K9V9.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CWA. SPC MESO
PAGE SUGGESTING CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG OR CAPE...WITH NEARLY 100-200
J/KG OF 0-3KM CAPE ACROSS BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES. SHEAR
VALUES NOT LOOKING THE BEST...BUT DO HAVE 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30KT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES OFF THE KABR SOUNDING SHOWING BETTER
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...THAN SPEED SHEAR. EXPECT -TRW CHANCES TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST INTO MID EVENING...WITH SOME LINGERING
STORMS POSSIBLE INTO LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO CLEAR THE AREA QUICKLY WITH CLEARING SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TORNADO THREAT STILL A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CWA...WHERE SHEAR VALUES...AND MOISTURE INDICES
LOOK A LITTLE BETTER. LCL HEIGHTS DOWN AROUND 1000M OR SLIGHTLY
LOWER...SO EXPECT CLOUD BASES LOW ENOUGH FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL. AS
THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION...SFC HIGH PRESS AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGING SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY DOMINANT INTO WEDNESDAY. BEGIN TO SEE A WEAK UPPER
WAVE TRAVEL THROUGH TOP OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES. GFS/NAM DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON THIS SYSTEM...AND ITS
STRENGTH. NAM KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGING DOMINANT...WITH THE WAVE
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. GFS BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT...AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM MORE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE STUCK
WITH THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT WERE
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS CHANGES MAY
BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THAT WAVE BECOME
MORE CERTAIN. ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES...AS NAM HAS BEEN
SHOWING SLIGHTLY BETTER CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
BIGGEST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PCPN PROBABILITIES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPS LATE IN THE EXTENDED.

CURRENTLY MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL UPPER PATTERN.
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS REGION ON FRIDAY SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS
AS STRONG LOW/TROF BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE NWRN CONUS BY MID-WEEKEND.
BY END OF EXTENDED...GOOD CAA REGIME SET-UP ACROSS CWA WITH TEMPS AT
7H FALLING FROM +10 TO +12 ON FRIDAY...TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW BY
00Z TUESDAY.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS HINT THAT MOST OF CWA WILL BE WARM SECTORED WITH
7H CAPPING TEMPS IN PLACE. BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED TO THE ND/SD BORDER
BY 00Z SATURDAY WITH OUR NRN COUNTIES STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...HAVE HELD OFF ON ADDING ANY PCPN FOR
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN ENSEMBLES STILL POINT TOWARD BEST AREA BEING
NORTH OF BORDER.

SFC LOW AND FRONT MAKE A SLOW PROGRESSION ACROSS CWA DURING THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DAY FOR PCPN POTENTIAL WITH 7H
THETA-E RIDGE STILL NOSING INTO ERN CWA AND CAP WEAKENING. HAVE LEFT
INHERITED WX GRIDS FOR SATURDAY IN PLACE.

SOME CONCERN ABOUT PCPN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE CWA
BROAD-BRUSHED WITH PCPN ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF CWA WITH DRY NW FLOW PUNCHING IN BEHIND FRONT.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF CWA AND DOWNGLIDE SEEN
IN THE 7H THETA-E FIELD. CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE STILL SAYING A 20%
PROBABILITY OF UP TO 2MM PCPN FOR SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE WX
GRIDS AS ARE.

TEMP WISE...LOWERED TEMPS ON MONDAY AS COOL AIR STILL FILTERS INTO
CWA AND 7H TEMPS FALL BELOW ZERO AND 85H TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

ALBRECHT/HINTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
514 AM CDT MON JUN 5 2006

SDZ003>007-009>011-015>019-033>037-045-048-051-061015-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-
DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-
JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
514 AM CDT MON JUN 5 2006 /414 AM MDT MON JUN 5 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY THREATS. ALSO...TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY SPARKING SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

MNZ039-046-SDZ008-020>023-061015-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-ROBERTS-CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-
514 AM CDT MON JUN 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ALSO...TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS
WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY SPARKING SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY THIS AFTERNOON.

KNUTSVIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
311 PM CDT MON JUN 05 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             6 S SAINT LAWRENCE      44.43N 98.94W
06/05/2006  M0.88 INCH       HAND               SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

NWS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 PM CDT MON JUN 05 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     HAIL             9 SSW WESSINGTON        44.33N 98.77W
06/05/2006  M0.88 INCH       HAND               SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

NWS