Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
350 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL OUT BY THIS EVENING. WARM CAP ALOFT HAS
BEEN HOLDING OFF ANY CONVECTION FIRING ALONG IT BUT THAT WILL
CHANGE. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...THE LLJ WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING AND
INTERSECTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH PLENTY OF CAPE ALONG WITH
DECENT WIND SHEAR...EXPECT TSRAS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS. THUS...HAVE A PRETTY GOOD POP
ACROSS THE CWA FOR TONIGHT AND MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
THEN PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA AS THE SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK
MOVE BY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO ALL OF THE CWA ON MONDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH
GENERALLY WEST WINDS DURING THE DAY AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT. THE
MODELS STILL INDICATE A SHORT WAVE COMING OVER THE AREA EITHER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. JUST
PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS STILL SHOWING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED IN REGARDS TO
PATTERN EVOLUTION AND STRENGTH/TIMING OF A COUPLE SHORTWAVES THAT
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RAISING MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MODELS
SHOW A SYSTEM DEPARTING TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN
FOR FRIDAY. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE STILL IN QUESTION AND IF MODELS
SLOW THIS FEATURE DOWN PRECIP MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY BUT
FOR NOW HAVE LEFT DRY. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY RANGE BUT WILL AWAIT FURTHER
CONFIDENCE IN MODELS RUNS BEFORE ADDING PRECIP.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

MOHR/TARVER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
800 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-291300-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-
800 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING OR LATE TONIGHT.

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051-291300-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
800 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006 /700 AM MDT SUN MAY 28 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...WITH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1103 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HAIL             OKATON                  43.89N 100.89W
05/28/2006  M1.00 INCH       JONES              SD   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

SDOERI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1148 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 PM     HAIL             2 W MURDO               43.89N 100.75W
05/28/2006  E0.88 INCH       JONES              SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SDOERI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1155 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 PM     HAIL             PIERRE                  44.37N 100.32W
05/28/2006  M1.00 INCH       HUGHES             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SDOERI