Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
414 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT TONIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.

PRESENTLY HAVE SEVERE CONVECTION GOING UP IN THE FA ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. A SEVERE WATCH AND TORNADO
WATCH COVER ALL OF THE FA EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL SODAK
ZONES. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH-END
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE A LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE FA WELL INTO THE EVENING.

THE 12Z SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE WHAT HAS BEEN THE THEME
FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...LOTS OF RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SUNDAY. BOTH SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED THE EXITING OF THE COLD FRONT
TO BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG 03 AND 06 HOURLY
PRESSURE TENDENCIES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
ONCE IT BEGINS TO PICK UP STEAM SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING SOME
FORMIDABLE WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE FA. MAY NEED A HIGHLIGHT OF SOME SORT RELATED TO THE
WINDS. BOTH MODELS SHOWING THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP WRAPPING UP
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL S/W WAVE TROF
PASSES NORTH INTO CANADA...BUT THEN HIGHLIGHT A SECOND S/W TROF
MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z ON SUNDAY. EXPECTING MORE
THUNDER SUNDAY...MAINLY IN AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THEN QUIET WEATHER DAYS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST OF TUESDAY. WAA AND RETURN FLOW SET UP LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND INSERTED A SLT CHANCE POP TO MATCH UP WITH UNR
AND BIS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SODAK.

NO NEED TO CHANGE ANYTHING IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FLOW BECOMES SWRLY ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPING. MODELS STILL ON TRACK WITH BRINGING A
LOW PRESSURE INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. PREVIOUS
WX/POP GRIDS LOOK FINE FOR RIGHT NOW. NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO
TEMPS AT THIS POINT EITHER.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     HAMLIN-HAND-MARSHALL-SPINK.

MN...NONE.

&&

DORN/MOHR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1133 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>036-045-131645-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-
1133 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006 /1033 AM MDT SAT AUG 12 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON BY 2PM CDT.

SDZ006-007-011-018>020-022-037-131645-
BROWN-MARSHALL-DAY-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-HAMLIN-HAND-
1133 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KENNEBEC TO MILLER TO
HECLA WILL DEVELOP IN A VERY MOISTURE RICH...FAVORABLE SHEAR...AND
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...RESULTING IN SEVERE HAIL AND
THUNDERSTORM WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AS WELL. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...CREATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CDT
TODAY TO NOON CDT ON SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 4 PM CDT.

MNZ039-046-SDZ008-021-023-048-051-131645-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-ROBERTS-GRANT-DEUEL-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
1133 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KENNEBEC TO MILLER TO
HECLA WILL DEVELOP IN A VERY MOISTURE RICH...FAVORABLE SHEAR...AND
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...RESULTING IN SEVERE HAIL AND
THUNDERSTORM WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AS WELL. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...CREATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 4 PM CDT.

DORN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED FOR TIME OF EVENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
335 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 S ROSCOE              45.32N 99.33W
08/12/2006  E60 MPH          EDMUNDS            SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             7 S ROSCOE              45.35N 99.33W
08/12/2006  E0.88 INCH       EDMUNDS            SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
403 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     HAIL             4 E KIDDER              45.88N 97.63W
08/12/2006  E0.75 INCH       MARSHALL           SD   PUBLIC

&&

GN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
440 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             MINA                    45.44N 98.76W
08/12/2006  E0.75 INCH       EDMUNDS            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
532 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SW TULARE             44.69N 98.58W
08/12/2006  E60 MPH          SPINK              SD   PUBLIC

&&

GN