Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS FROM NORTHERN TEXAS TO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM IT ACROSS TO NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. STORMS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE IT BEGINS A SLOW PUSH TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...FINALLY REACHING MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH
WILL PUSH ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES COMING OFF IT AND TRACKING OVER
THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM HUDSON
BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.
BEST INSTABILITY TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN CWA. NICE BOUNDARY
CAN BE SEEN ON KABR RADAR...AND CURRENT STORMS APPEAR TO BE
DEVELOPING ON THIS BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE GOING OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT AS THERE ARE LIKELY SUBTLE BOUNDARIES STILL
AROUND FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY...THEN TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS STABILIZE NICELY ON FRIDAY...SO WILL LEAVE
THE DAY PERIOD DRY. A 40-50 KT LLJ SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK BEGINS TO NOSE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK GREAT...BUT LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-9.0 DEGREES
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LLJ MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW STORMS.
DECENT HEATING AGAIN ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE...WITH MODELS INDICATING CAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG
AND LI/S AROUND -6 BY AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES THROUGH PRETTY
SLOWLY...AND DOES NOT LOOK TO CLEAR THE REGION UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCE GOING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE AREA AFTER THAT.

NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THEN DECENT WAA AHEAD OF INCOMING SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY...THEN PRETTY GOOD COOLING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NOT MUCH CHANCE TO THE EXTENDED. THINGS LOOK NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPWISE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN A WARM UP FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN RETURN FLOW OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY. PRECIP CHANCES REALLY PICK UP...THOUGH...BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS GULF MOISTURE OVERTAKES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN SW FLOW ALOFT. INSERTED SLT CHANCE AND LOW-END
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS SUCH.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

PARKIN/DORN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
526 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-111030-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
526 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006 /426 AM MDT THU AUG 10 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF A BOWDLE-WARNER-
WEBSTER LINE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS IS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

TT

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