Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
345 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FACING THE NEAR TERM DEALS WITH PCPN COVERAGE
AND TYPE TODAY THRU TONIGHT. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE TAKING 5H LOW
FURTHER TO SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT..AND -TSRA JUST NOW
REACHING FAR SW CWA. LATEST DAY1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC JUST CLIPS FAR
SERN CWA. BEST INSTABILITY OCCURS THRU MORNING ACROSS SRN TO SE CWA
WITH RESPECTABLE 7H-5H LAPSE RATES FROM 6 TO 7 DEGREES C. NAM MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES REACH 500 J/KG BY 18Z WITH BEST LIS AROUND -1.
BY 00Z FRIDAY THESE VALUES FALL OFF DRAMATICALLY AS DRY AIR BEGINS
TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH. FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHEN CONVECTIVE PCPN WILL PHASE OVER TO STRATIFORM TYPE AS 85H AND
7H TROWAL FEATURES TAKE OVER. THESE ALSO BOTH SLIP RAPIDLY SOUTH BY
00Z AS SFC AND 5H LOWS TAKE MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE. ALSO WELL
PRONOUNCED DRY PUNCH NOW ADVECTING THROUGH WRN NEB/WRN SD WITH SAT
PIC SHOWING CLEAR SKIES. KEPT HIGHEST PROBABLITY PCPN TO THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES DURING DAY...TAPERING CHCS DOWN TO THE NE
PART OF CWA.

NEXT CONCERN IS WINDS TONIGHT. AS LOW SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTH...STRONG
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM NORTH. MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS AT
OR ABOVE 30KTS FOR MANY PLACES. GIVEN STRENGTH OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
EXITING SYSTEM AND CAA TAKING PLACE..SEE NO REASON TO DISCOUNT. WILL
ISSUE A WIND ADVRY FOR ALL CWA FROM 00Z TO 12Z FRIDAY. THIS MAY BE A
LITTLE LONG TIME WISE...BUT WOULD RATHER RUN LONG THAN HAVE LATER
SHIFTS EXTEND ADVRY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TO COVER. CLEARING EXPECTED
RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND TRENDED POPS QUICKLY OUT OF CWA OVERNIGHT.

REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM QUIET. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WAA RETURNS TO
CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS DO PROG ANOTHER WAVE PASSING THROUGH
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT LITTLE SEEN IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH
FEATURE. MIGHT BE A FEW ACCAS AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD BUT DONT EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN THAT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. IT STARTS OFF WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSING TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. A BROAD...AND RATHER FLAT...UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT
EAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MAKES PROGRESS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ITS
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED THE
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. MODELS DO VARY
IN THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY 00Z FRIDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY ALL COUNTIES.
MN...WIND ADVISORY 00Z FRIDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY FOR BIG STONE AND
TRAVERSE COUNTIES.
&&

HINTZ/KNUTSVIG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
539 AM CDT WED APR 5 2006

MNZ039-061045-
TRAVERSE-
539 AM CDT WED APR 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PERSISTENT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGGRAVATE
FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS TRAVERSE COUNTY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS AROUND 30 MPH EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS...FOR THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL BE LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MNZ046-SDZ003>011-015>023-034-036-037-061045-
BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-
GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-SULLY-HYDE-HAND-
539 AM CDT WED APR 5 2006 /439 AM MDT WED APR 5 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN
AROUND 30 MPH THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL BE LIGHTNING.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SDZ033-035-045-048-051-061045-
STANLEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
539 AM CDT WED APR 5 2006 /439 AM MDT WED APR 5 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN
AROUND 30 MPH THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL BE LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TONIGHT.

KNUTSVIG