Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL ND INTO WESTERN SD.
CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL SD.
EXPECTING ISO THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TO BECOME
SEVERE. ML CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AS
LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. PLUME OF LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS ALSO
PRESENT ALONG MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. ELEVATED ACTIVITY /NON SEVERE/
CONTINUES JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER INTO ND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ALONG SOUTHERN ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SEPARATE WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS COULD CLIP NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT LEFT POPS OUT FOR THIS
EVENING AS MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN ND. AS TROUGH MOVES EAST
TONIGHT...ISO-SCT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT. SFC COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS
SOUTHERN SD ON MONDAY. MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING OF THE FRONT NOW. DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY
AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH. FEEL THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST
SHOT FOR ANYTHING. ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE DAKOTAS BY MID WEEK
AND THE GFS LOOKS A BIT TOO STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS SD. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
TIME. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO TEMPS WAS TO RAISE MAX TS FOR
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST AS IT APPEARS AS IF A BIT MORE WARMING WILL
TAKE PLACE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT JUST EXITING THE
EASTERN CWA...THEN A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THURSDAY EVENING...REMAINING
THERE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE JUST EXITING THE
REGION THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER APPROACHES AND SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP A SMALL
POP GOING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER SUPPORT. THE REGION BECOMES SITUATED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING AND REMAINING WEST OF THE
CWA.

NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS RIGHT AROUND +20 ON
THURSDAY...THEN COOLING INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
REBOUNDING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

TT/AP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
532 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

MNZ039-046-SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-036-037-051-211045-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-EDMUNDS-DAY-
FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-HYDE-HAND-BUFFALO-
532 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. AT
THIS TIME LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...AS A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES EACH DAY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048-211045-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-WALWORTH-DEWEY-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-JONES-
LYMAN-
532 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006 /432 AM MDT SUN AUG 20 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE THERE IS A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT
THIS TIME THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 90 AND
SOUTH WINDS PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. ALSO
SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ALBRECHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
530 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             6 S PIERRE              44.29N 100.32W
08/20/2006  E0.75 INCH       STANLEY            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

0517 PM     HAIL             6 S PIERRE              44.29N 100.32W
08/20/2006  E0.88 INCH       STANLEY            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TDK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
632 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     HAIL             15 S PIERRE             44.16N 100.32W
08/20/2006  M1.75 INCH       LYMAN              SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JRS