Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
236 PM MDT FRI AUG 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...BROAD RIDGE ALOFT STRETCHES FROM WEST TEXAS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW SPOT ON WESTERN MARGIN OF
THE RIDGE SITS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONFIRMING RETURN OF BROAD MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE
WITH CONSEQUENT UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY...COVERAGE...AND
AMOUNTS. ABQ 12Z SOUNDING SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH WITH GREATER AMOUNTS UPSTREAM IN THE FLOW. SURFACE HIGH
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER RED RIVER
VALLEY EASING WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TO AN ALBUQUERQUE TO
TUCUMCARI LINE...AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME INITIAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION GETTING STARTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN PORTION OF
THE STATE. FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN EXTREME NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE STATE...UNION COUNTY...MAY RESULT IN SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. THETA E RIDGE EXTENDING FROM LORDSBURG NORTHEAST TO
COLORADO BORDER NEAR CHAMA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE FOCUS AND
MOISTURE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER WEST AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND WELL INTO THE EVENING.

SHOWER INTENSITY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MAINTAIN HYDROLOGIC
CONCERNS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...AND CONDITIONS IN
SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AT MESCALERO DAM AND NEAR BONITO LAKE WILL
BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR NEARBY RAINFALL.

MODELS...CONSENSUS SOLUTION SAGS TROUGH ALOFT SOUTHWARD OVER
WESTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WEST
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY SATURDAY MORNING. COOL PUSH WILL
REINVIGORATE CONVECTION IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE WHILE DYNAMIC HELP FROM SAGGING TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER
MOISTURE AXIS LYING OVER WESTERN AXIS OF THE STATE TO TRIGGER
CONVECTION THERE. TROUGH ALOFT ROUNDING OUT AND SHEARING EAST ON
SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE SOME MODEST DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME
REDUCTION IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. RELIEF WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS COOL INTRUSION BEHIND THE EASTWARD TRANSLATING TROUGH
WILL MEET UP ONCE AGAIN WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE TO RETURN HEAVY
RAINS TO THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THIS BASIC PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK. SHY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  59  88  55  87 /  30  20  30   5
GALLUP..........................  53  83  47  84 /  30  20  30  10
GRANTS..........................  51  83  50  84 /  30  20  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  58  89  56  91 /  30  40  30  20
CHAMA...........................  45  76  42  76 /  30  30  30  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  51  82  51  80 /  30  10  30  10
RED RIVER.......................  41  70  39  66 /  40  30  40  10
TAOS............................  50  81  47  80 /  30  20  40  10
SANTA FE........................  54  82  53  81 /  30  20  30  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  83  55  84 /  20  10  30  10
ESPANOLA........................  52  86  52  86 /  20  10  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  86  65  87 /  20  10  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  61  88  59  88 /  20  10  40  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  60  83  59  86 /  20  10  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  60  92  60  88 /  20  10  40  10
SOCORRO.........................  60  88  58  90 /  30  30  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  51  78  52  79 /  30  10  30  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  53  85  52  85 /  20  20  30  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  59  86  57  85 /  20  40  40  30
RUIDOSO.........................  54  78  52  77 /  30  50  40  30
RATON...........................  52  80  50  79 /  40  50  60  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  53  79  52  78 /  30  60  40  20
ROY.............................  57  80  56  79 /  40  40  60  40
CLAYTON.........................  59  80  58  78 /  70  40  70  60
SANTA ROSA......................  59  89  57  87 /  20  20  50  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  64  87  63  85 /  20  40  60  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  62  88  62  88 /  10  20  40  30
CLOVIS..........................  65  89  64  86 /  20  30  70  40
PORTALES........................  66  91  65  89 /  20  30  50  30
ROSWELL.........................  70  93  68  89 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
603 AM MDT FRI AUG 25 2006

NMZ001>021-026-261200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
603 AM MDT FRI AUG 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...MAINLY OVER UNION COUNTY.
IN ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...
RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING ALONG STREAMS...CREEKS AND ARROYOS
ALONG WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE RISK OF TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH SIGNIFICANT
RUNOFF AND FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE. FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE EAST...WHILE THE
FAVORED LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
LATER NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. STREAMS...CREEKS AND SMALLER RIVERS
WILL BE A BIG CONCERN FOR FLOODING...INCLUDING CARRIZO CREEK
COMING INTO RUIDOSO...AS WELL AS THE RIO RUIDOSO AND RIO BONITO IN
SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS
USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING
PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY BETWEEN 200 PM AND 900
PM MDT.

40

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
120 PM MDT FRI AUG 25 2006

NMZ002-252000-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
120 PM MDT FRI AUG 25 2006

...HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORM NEAR LOS ALAMOS...

A SMALL BUT PERSIST STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH
SMALL HAIL NEAR LOS ALAMOS. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW HEAVY RAIN OF
BETWEEN SIX TENTHS AND ONE INCH IN LESS THAN 25 MINUTES CENTERED IN
THE AREA ALONG STATE ROAD 502 A FEW MILES EAST OF THE MAIN AREAS
OF LOS ALAMOS.

LOCAL CURB FULL FLOODING OF CITY STREETS WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG
WATER PONDING AT INTERSECTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 2 PM.

CONTINUE TO LISTEN FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE FLOOD
ADVISORY.

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
145 PM MDT FRI AUG 25 2006

NMZ001>005-008>011-014-015-252115-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
145 PM MDT FRI AUG 25 2006

...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS ON THE INCREASE DURING MID AFTERNOON...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW STRONG BUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

THROUGH 330 PM...FIRST STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF ONE INCH IN
LESS THAN 25 TO 30 MINUTES WILL BE ACTIVE NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF
GALLUP AND ALSO JUST WEST OF LOS LUNAS AND BELEN. AT STORM NEAR LOS
ALAMOS WAS DECREASING BUT HAD ALREADY PRODUCED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
EAST OF LOS ALAMOS.

OTHER AREAS OF INCREASING STORMS THROUGH 3 PM WILL BE LOCATED
BETWEEN LAS VEGAS AND RATON AND WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO.

STORMS WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

STAY ALERT TO A QUICK INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS ON SMALL ARROYOS AND
DRY WASHES AND WATCH FOR DISTANT HEAVY RAINS ON UPSTREAM WATER
SHEDS.

CONTINUE TO LISTEN FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE FLOOD
ADVISORIES.

03

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