Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT FRI AUG 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...SAGGING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH TIME. NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT REACHED CVN LATE MORNING...AND ATTM CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTH
AND WESTWARD.

OTHERWISE...CU DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ALONG EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF REMAINDER OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.  CELLS FORMED OVER SANDIA/MANZANOS AND CHUSKAS BY MIDDAY
WHICH WERE SLOW TO DEVELOP OR ABSENT ON THURSDAY.

850-500 MB THETA-E AXIS SATURDAY ORIENTED THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND OVER GILA/CATRON COUNTY. WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT SUNDAY...IT TILTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...AND MAINTAINS A SIMILAR POSITION ON MONDAY.

MEANWHILE...DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW EVIDENT SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SPREADING INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF STATE MONDAY BEHIND
ANOTHER SOUTHWARD MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS TO CIRCULATION ALONG TEXAS
GULF COAST. ECMWF TAKES IT BACK THROUGH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS
SEEMS HARDER TO PIN DOWN...WITH MULTIPLE VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

UPSHOT IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES AND TRANSITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FAVORED AREAS MAY SHIFT AS MORE SUBTLE AND DAY TO DAY DETAILS
PRESENT THEMSELVES. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT SHORTLY TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  89  62  87 /  30  30  20  20
GALLUP..........................  59  83  56  83 /  30  30  30  20
GRANTS..........................  57  82  55  82 /  30  30  40  20
GLENWOOD........................  60  90  59  91 /  40  20  30  30
CHAMA...........................  49  78  48  78 /  30  40  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  54  82  54  80 /  40  40  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  47  73  44  72 /  30  40  30  30
TAOS............................  54  83  52  80 /  30  30  30  30
SANTA FE........................  58  85  56  82 /  30  30  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  86  59  83 /  30  30  30  30
ESPANOLA........................  57  87  57  85 /  30  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  87  68  86 /  30  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  88  64  87 /  30  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  65  85  64  83 /  30  30  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  65  88  65  87 /  30  30  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  64  90  63  87 /  20  30  40  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  52  78  50  76 /  30  30  40  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  58  86  56  82 /  20  30  40  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  88  59  86 /  20  20  50  20
RUIDOSO.........................  56  82  54  79 /  30  30  50  40
RATON...........................  54  85  53  82 /  20  30  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  81  54  79 /  30  30  30  30
ROY.............................  58  84  57  80 /  30  20  40  40
CLAYTON.........................  63  88  63  84 /  20  20  20  30
SANTA ROSA......................  61  90  60  87 /  20  10  30  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  91  67  89 /  20  20  30  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  92  65  87 /  20  10  30  50
CLOVIS..........................  67  90  66  88 /  30  20  30  30
PORTALES........................  69  92  67  88 /  30  10  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  72  93  71  92 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT FRI AUG 11 2006

NMZ001>021-026-121200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
600 AM MDT WED AUG 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER..SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
ACROSS THE WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...
RISING WATER LEVELS AND/OR FLOODING THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

SHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT FRI AUG 11 2006

NMZ001>021-026-121100-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
300 PM MDT FRI AUG 11 2006

...INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN EPISODES FROM THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO IS
LIKELY TO GET WETTER STARTING THIS WEEKEND. THE PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT NORTH WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA
INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
COULD UNLEASH THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF NEW MEXICO.

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY EVENING FROM THE NORTH AND THIS FEATURE COULD BE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOUTH TO NORTH SURGES OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE TOO MUCH RAIN WILL FALL FOR OUR
NEARLY SATURATED SOILS TO ABSORB WILL BE DETAILED IN FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND FLOOD ADVISORIES IN THE COMING DAYS.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES.

07/99

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