Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION FIRED ALONG EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...FROM CHAMA TO TRES PIEDRAS AND OVER THE
GILA...SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG...AT MIDDAY.
ALSO STORMS HAVE ERUPTED OVER THE CHUSKAS...WHERE THEY WERE
GENERALLY ABSENT SUNDAY.

MODELS START TO WEAKEN THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL GRADIENT THAT HAS
BROUGHT OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF GUSTY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND SURGES OF MOISTURE TO THE CONTDVD AND WESTWARD.
THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WHILE OCCASIONAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BLOW THROUGH PASSES INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE WIND WILL BE
MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN...AND LIKELY OF SHORTER DURATION.

TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH NEW MEXICO
REMAINING ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER HIGH. BUT BY
MIDWEEK...THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY
OVER NEW MEXICO.

SOME INDICATION IN THE MET GUIDANCE AT LEAST...DEWPOINTS WILL
EXPERIENCE A DRYING TREND OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER/THIRD OF THE
STATE BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...850-500 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY. GFS SEEMS
NOT AS BULLISH ON THIS TREND. WILL PLAY UP WEDNESDAY/S WEATHER
TOWARDS THE NAM ATTM UNTIL A DRYING TREND IS OBSERVED.

NAM POSITIONS A WEAK UPPER LOW ALONG BAJA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THE MODEL ALSO
IDENTIFIES A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH
AND DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS. FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS BORDER THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. SO DESPITE THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...AND UNLIKE THE GFS...THE
NAM THINKS THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER ACTIVE.

THE END OF THE WEEK DOES APPEAR TO BE DRIER WITH THE HIGH CENTER
SETTING UP OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE GOOD
THING IS THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
POOLED SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  ALL THAT/S NEEDED IS A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  59  88  56  91 /  20  20  20  20
GALLUP..........................  50  83  49  86 /  20  30  20  20
GRANTS..........................  52  81  49  84 /  40  30  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  55  91  55  94 /  40  30  30  30
CHAMA...........................  40  77  40  77 /  30  40  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  50  78  48  82 /  50  50  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  39  67  39  69 /  40  50  40  30
TAOS............................  45  76  44  79 /  50  50  30  30
SANTA FE........................  49  76  47  80 /  40  50  40  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  51  77  51  81 /  40  50  40  30
ESPANOLA........................  51  82  50  84 /  50  50  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  60  82  60  85 /  40  30  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  56  84  56  86 /  40  30  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  58  82  58  84 /  50  40  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  59  83  58  86 /  40  30  40  20
SOCORRO.........................  60  85  59  89 /  30  30  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  52  72  53  80 /  50  50  50  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  50  77  50  84 /  40  50  40  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  57  82  56  86 /  30  20  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  52  72  52  79 /  30  30  40  20
RATON...........................  45  72  46  81 /  30  30  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  47  73  46  77 /  50  50  30  30
ROY.............................  52  76  54  79 /  20  20  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  53  78  56  84 /  20  20  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  54  81  56  86 /  30  30  30  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  56  82  57  88 /  20  20  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  58  82  60  88 /  20  20  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  57  83  58  88 /  20  20  20  10
PORTALES........................  58  83  59  89 /  20  20  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  61  84  60  90 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
605 AM MDT MON JUN 26 2006

NMZ001>021-026-271200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
605 AM MDT MON JUN 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MANY PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ARROYOS AND
SMALL STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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