Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
151 PM MDT SUN SEP 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...PLACEMENT AND EXTENT OF PRECIP THE MAIN CHALLENGE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING ALONG THE NM AND CO BORDER THIS PM AND
WILL AID IN CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVE OVER NC AND NE ZONES. THEN A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP S AND W OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
E CANYON WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. STRENGTH OF E WIND WILL
DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF STORMS OVER THE ERN HIGH PLAINS. WILL KEEP 10 TO
20 MPH E WIND FOR NOW...BUT COULD END UP A LITTLE HIGHER. FAVORED
AREA FOR STORMS THIS EVE WILL BE THE NE QUARTER...THEN MUCH OF THE
E LATE TONIGHT.

THE E WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MON AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS REPLENISHED. MODELS NOW ADVERTISING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DROPPING S MON NIGHT AND TUE...AROUND A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL DELAY THE DRYING IN THE NE AND E FOR AT
LEAST 12 HOURS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN THE E FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
SOME DRYING WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE N AND NE LATER TUE...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ZONES ENDING UP MOST FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

DRYING TO CONTINUE TUE NIGHT AND WED...WITH TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT LIKELY HAVING THE LEAST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. THE SW WILL
BE FAVORED WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED POPS....ISOLATED ELSEHWERE EXCEPT
RAIN FREE IN THE NE. STORM CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER CNTRL CA WILL DROP S INTO CNTRL BAJA CA OR NW OLD MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK...THEN LIFT NE OVER NM LATE THIS WEEK. THU AND FRI SHOULD
SEE AN UPWARD TREND IN POPS. A STRONG W TO SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
NOTICEABLE DRYING TO THE STATE NEXT WEEKEND. CHJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  50  82  51  84 /  20  10  10  10
GALLUP..........................  42  77  43  79 /  10  20  10  20
GRANTS..........................  43  78  45  77 /  10  20  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  53  84  55  77 /  20  40  40  40
CHAMA...........................  37  74  38  74 /  30  20  20  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  45  78  46  75 /  20  30  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  35  66  35  65 /  30  30  20  10
TAOS............................  42  74  42  75 /  30  30  30  10
SANTA FE........................  48  77  47  76 /  20  30  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  50  77  50  77 /  20  20  30  20
ESPANOLA........................  46  80  49  80 /  20  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  58  80  59  80 /  10  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  53  82  55  82 /  10  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  55  78  56  80 /  10  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  55  79  56  82 /  10  20  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  55  83  57  82 /  20  20  30  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  49  77  49  73 /  10  30  30  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  46  76  45  77 /  20  30  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  55  82  51  79 /  20  20  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  49  73  50  71 /  20  30  40  30
RATON...........................  45  72  44  77 /  40  30  40  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  45  71  45  74 /  30  30  40  20
ROY.............................  51  73  53  76 /  30  30  40  10
CLAYTON.........................  53  73  53  79 /  40  30  40  10
SANTA ROSA......................  54  78  52  82 /  30  30  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  57  77  56  81 /  30  30  40  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  58  76  56  81 /  30  30  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  58  78  56  79 /  30  30  30  20
PORTALES........................  59  80  55  81 /  30  30  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  62  84  61  83 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT SUN SEP 10 2006

NMZ001>021-026-101600-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
600 AM MDT SUN SEP 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHERE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
207 PM MDT SUN SEP 10 2006

NMZ007-102100-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
207 PM MDT SUN SEP 10 2006

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER UNION COUNTY...

AT 205 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES EAST OF DES MOINES TO 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF GLADSTONE. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE GRENVILLE...MOUNT DORA
AND SENECA.

THESE STORMS WERE NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA SOURCES FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES OR
WARNINGS.

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