Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
230 PM MDT FRI SEP 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER AREA HAS BEEN ACTED ON
BY DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN 60 KNOT JET MAX PASSING ACROSS AREA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING WRN 3/4 OF AREA SO FAR TODAY.
MOST STORMS ARE MOVING ALONG FAIRLY WELL...BUT STILL ARE EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS AND SOME TRAINING TAKING PLACE...SO LOCAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.  AS NIGHT PROGRESSES...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE REINFORCED BY RAPIDLY
MOVING BOUNDARY NOW OVER COLORADO.  GOOD FOCUSING AND OVERRUNNING OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED.  BEST TRAINING OF STORMS TO TAKE PLACE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS AREA WILL APPROACH 1.5
INCHES WITH HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS OF 3 OR 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THEREFORE
WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
SOUTH OF I 40 THROUGH SATURDAY...ESSENTIALLY FROM TORRANCE COUNTY
SOUTH AND EAST.

IN THE NORTHEAST...COOLER AIR WILL STABILIZE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS BECOMING MAIN WEATHER MODE.
MEANWHILE...FRONT WILL BURST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN RG VALLEY FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SAT MORNING.  WHILE EAST WINDS USUALLY INHIBIT ALL STORMS IN RG
VALLEY...SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH ACTIVITY TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS KICK
IN...AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THEY DIMINISH...TO KEEP SCATTERED
CATEGORY POPS IN METRO AREA.

BEST RAIN AREA WILL SHIFT TO SC/SW PART OF AREA SAT NGT/SUNDAY...AS
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.  SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO SHIFT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ACCORDINGLY TO THAT AREA TOMORROW. WHAT IS NEW THIS TIME
AROUND IS BETTER ATTEMPT BY GFS TO USHER TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE JOHN INTO NEW MEXICO NEXT WEEK.  SW AREAS COULD BE UNDER
THE GUN TUESDAY...WITH BEST MOISTURE SHIFTING TO SE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  58  85  58  85 /  20  20  20  10
GALLUP..........................  54  79  53  79 /  20  30  30  30
GRANTS..........................  53  76  50  76 /  30  30  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  59  82  58  78 /  30  50  60  60
CHAMA...........................  43  68  45  75 /  30  20  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  54  70  49  76 /  30  40  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  43  62  41  67 /  60  20  20  20
TAOS............................  50  70  44  75 /  50  20  20  20
SANTA FE........................  54  70  49  76 /  40  30  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  71  52  75 /  30  30  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  52  73  51  78 /  30  40  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  76  59  78 /  40  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  60  78  57  79 /  40  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  75  55  76 /  40  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  60  78  56  78 /  40  30  30  20
SOCORRO.........................  62  78  58  76 /  30  50  50  50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  55  67  52  71 /  50  50  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  71  51  74 /  60  60  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  74  55  74 /  30  60  60  60
RUIDOSO.........................  55  63  52  63 /  50  60  60  60
RATON...........................  51  65  45  73 /  70  30  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  50  63  46  71 /  70  40  20  20
ROY.............................  54  64  52  73 /  70  30  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  53  64  49  74 /  60  30  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  57  70  53  77 /  80  60  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  59  68  53  76 /  80  60  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  60  69  56  78 /  80  60  30  30
CLOVIS..........................  60  68  53  75 /  80  60  20  20
PORTALES........................  60  71  54  77 /  80  70  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  66  70  60  74 /  60  70  50  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NMZ010-NMZ011-NMZ012-NMZ013-NMZ016-NMZ017-NMZ018-
NMZ019-NMZ020-NMZ021-NMZ026.

&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT FRI SEP 1 2006

NMZ001>021-026-021200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
600 AM MDT FRI SEP 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...STRONG POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN. SOME VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS
WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS COLFAX...UNION...MORA...HARDING...SAN
MIGUEL...QUAY...TORRANCE AND GUADALUPE COUNTIES.

43

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
426 PM MDT FRI SEP 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     HAIL             6 NE ABBOTT             36.37N 104.18W
09/01/2006  E0.75 INCH       COLFAX             NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL AT THE ONSET OF STORM

&&

GUYER

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