Red Flag Warning 40, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
323 AM MDT THU APR 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW HAS CONTINUED TO DIG SOUTH ALONG
THE CA COAST AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST NEAR THE CA AND
MEX BORDER. THE LOW IS JUST STARTING TO ELONGATE SLIGHTLY IN AN EAST
WEST DIRECTION WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN AZ.
EXPECT THE LOW TO START ITS TREK EAST THIS MORNING. TIMING IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SO WILL SHIFT BACK THE START OF POPS. LOW
IS TRACKING SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THEN YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS
ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW PLACEMENT THRU 18Z FRI IN CURRENT RUNS. AN UPPER LVL JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST NM LATER TODAY
AND HELP INCREASE SFC WINDS AS THE ATMOS MIXES. MOISTURE AT LOW LVLS
WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG A BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING. THE BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. AT THE SFC A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS FRIDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR TS/SH DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NM BORDER AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST AFTER REACHING THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF NM LATE FRI. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
SOUTHERN LOW PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN TROF WHICH HELPS PULL THE LOW
EAST. TS/SH WILL DECREASE ON SAT WITH SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND OVER
THE NORTHERN MTNS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. A WEAK RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP
OVER NM DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A FEW VERY WEAK S/WS
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
TIER OF THE STATE. A SFC BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY HELPING TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST. FLOW
REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE NORTHEAST THRU THE EXTENDED AND
THEREFORE LIMITED POPS FOR EACH DAY FOR THE NORTHERN MTNS AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  76  45  64  35 /  10  20  40  20
GALLUP..........................  69  34  59  27 /  10  30  30  20
GRANTS..........................  72  38  59  29 /  10  20  40  30
GLENWOOD........................  77  40  66  37 /  20  20  40  10
CHAMA...........................  64  31  51  24 /  10  30  70  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  67  43  53  32 /   5  40  40  40
RED RIVER.......................  58  31  42  21 /  10  50  70  30
TAOS............................  69  35  51  26 /  10  40  60  30
SANTA FE........................  70  42  55  31 /   5  30  40  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  71  42  58  33 /   5  30  50  40
ESPANOLA........................  75  40  62  33 /   5  40  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  75  48  64  41 /   0  20  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  76  44  64  39 /   0  20  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  75  45  63  38 /   0  30  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  78  45  66  41 /   0  20  40  40
SOCORRO.........................  81  47  68  42 /  10  20  30  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  70  39  56  29 /   0  30  40  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  71  39  57  33 /   5  30  40  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  78  43  65  39 /  10  30  20  30
RUIDOSO.........................  66  40  54  34 /  10  30  20  40
RATON...........................  71  39  50  29 /   5  40  70  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  68  39  52  31 /   5  30  60  40
ROY.............................  67  41  49  34 /   5  50  70  40
CLAYTON.........................  73  46  49  35 /   5  50  70  40
SANTA ROSA......................  76  45  62  37 /   5  30  50  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  77  51  59  40 /   5  30  60  50
FORT SUMNER.....................  76  49  64  42 /  10  30  50  40
CLOVIS..........................  75  50  64  40 /  10  40  60  50
PORTALES........................  75  50  68  42 /  10  30  60  50
ROSWELL.........................  77  53  73  47 /  10  40  20  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR NMZ105-NMZ106-NMZ109.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
545 AM MDT WED APR 26 2006

NMZ001>021-026-271200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
545 AM MDT WED APR 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ALSO...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS WINDS INCREASE ON
THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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