Red Flag Warning 34, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
303 AM MDT TUE APR 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...SKIES WILL CLEAR TODAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL JET
CORE SLOWLY EXITS EAST. WITH BETTER MIXING THE WINDS WILL REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MORE EASILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE JET WILL LIFT NORTH AS IT PULLS EAST...SO THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA LONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY IN CHAVES...DE BACA...ROOSEVELT AND CURRY
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
QUAY AND UNION COUNTIES TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY. IN
CONTRAST...THE EAST PLAINS WILL SEE DRYING CONDITIONS IN
DOWNSLOPING FLOW TODAY. THUS...A RED FLAG WARNINIG WILL BE ISSUED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH THE MORNING FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST.

MID WEEK WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND CALMER WINDS TO THE AREA AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. THE RIDGE WILL SLIP EAST OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY WHILE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME ELEVATED
MOISTURE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...WHICH OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
COULD USE TO TRIGGER A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...TOP DOWN MOISTENING AND INCREASING
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW COULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TERRAIN
SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH AND LIFTS
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  34  73  38 /   5   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  63  26  73  30 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  64  29  74  35 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  74  36  81  40 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  56  24  66  29 /  10   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  63  34  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  54  25  62  28 /  10   0   0   0
TAOS............................  61  29  69  31 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  65  35  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  68  37  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  69  33  76  36 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  69  45  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  71  39  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  41  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  71  41  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  74  39  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  65  32  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  68  35  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  74  41  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  68  39  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  70  29  74  34 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  66  36  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  73  38  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  77  42  77  48 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  80  41  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  82  46  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  81  45  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  82  49  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  83  48  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  84  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ103-NMZ104-NMZ107-NMZ108.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ005-NMZ006-
NMZ010-NMZ011-NMZ012.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ007-NMZ013.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT TUE APR 11 2006

NMZ001>021-026-121200-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MDT TUE APR 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE SANDIA AND
MANZANO MOUNTAIN TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...LOW HUMIDITIES AND HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO PRODUCE A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER SCENARIO ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE FRIDAY...THEN
STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW HUMIDITIES AND
HIGH FIRE MAY ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO PRODUCE A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON BOTH DAYS.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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