Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
246 PM MDT THU AUG 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
CREATING ARROYO AND SMALL STREAM WOE FROM TUCUMCARI NORTH TO CLAYTON
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND REDUCED STORM
COVERAGE IN AREAS TO THE WEST. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH GRADUAL TAPERING TOWARD MORNING AND ENDING
BY NOON.

BROAD RIDGE ALOFT LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN U.S. CENTERED ON SOUTHWEST
TEXAS AND POKES WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH TROUGH ALOFT
UPSTREAM EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
WITH THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA CIRCULATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO...WITH WINDS BACKING
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

MODELS...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT WESTWARD AND FORCING BEST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS SOLUTION INTRODUCES STRONG DRY SLOT UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY...WHILE NAM SOLUTION
REMAINS MUCH WETTER ALOFT AND HANGS ON TO CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS A
LITTLE LONGER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD GFS THIS ROUND FOR MORE
DYNAMICALLY CONSISTENT PICTURE...AND INTRODUCED SOME CLEARING IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS PRECIPITATION FOCUS SHIFTS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...AM ANTICIPATING GOOD DYNAMICS AND AMPLE COLUMN MOISTURE
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER CATRON AND SOCORRO
COUNTIES AND POINTS SOUTH...AND THIS AREA WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

WITH DRY SLOT AND RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST...PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO ARIZONA TO END THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN
DRYING TREND FROM EAST TO WEST FOR FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE TO BASIC PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGHEST HEIGHTS
ALOFT BUILD BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND RETURNING WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO FOR CONTINUED BOUTS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
STATEWIDE WITH SOME MODEST REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  65  86  62  86 /  30  40  50  30
GALLUP..........................  60  80  57  79 /  40  50  50  30
GRANTS..........................  59  78  55  78 /  40  50  40  30
GLENWOOD........................  61  86  63  84 /  30  60  50  40
CHAMA...........................  47  75  47  76 /  50  70  60  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  53  76  53  78 /  60  50  50  30
RED RIVER.......................  45  68  44  71 /  50  50  40  40
TAOS............................  53  78  50  81 /  40  40  40  30
SANTA FE........................  56  79  55  81 /  50  50  40  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  57  80  58  82 /  50  50  40  30
ESPANOLA........................  56  84  57  87 /  40  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  83  65  85 /  50  50  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  85  61  87 /  40  50  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  82  62  85 /  50  50  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  84  63  86 /  40  50  40  30
SOCORRO.........................  63  84  62  86 /  40  40  40  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  51  72  53  77 /  50  50  50  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  80  56  83 /  50  50  40  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  59  82  59  84 /  40  40  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  53  73  53  75 /  50  50  40  30
RATON...........................  55  81  54  86 /  50  30  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  78  53  81 /  50  40  30  20
ROY.............................  60  82  61  85 /  40  20  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  60  87  63  91 /  60  20  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  59  87  60  91 /  60  20  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  91  66  95 /  60  20  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  89  65  90 /  60  20  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  64  90  65  92 /  40  20  10   5
PORTALES........................  65  90  66  93 /  40  20  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  69  89  68  93 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ARROYO AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY - NMC021-037-047-059

&&

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