Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Las Vegas, NV

000 
WWUS55 KVEF 251817
SVSVEF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1115 AM PDT TUE OCT 25 2005

NVC003-251845-
/O.CON.KVEF.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-051025T1845Z/
CLARK NV-
1115 AM PDT TUE OCT 25 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1145 AM PDT FOR 
SOUTH CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY...

AT 1113 AM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL 
4 MILES NORTHWEST OF COTTONWOOD COVE. OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS 
LIES WEST OF THE COLORADO RIVER BETWEEN COTTONWOOD COVE AND ELDORADO 
CANYON...NEAR NELSON. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH 
OF THE STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3548 11486 3543 11466 3583 11473 3585 11497

$$

PIERCE

000 
WWUS55 KVEF 251846
SVSVEF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1145 AM PDT TUE OCT 25 2005

NVC003-251851-
/O.EXP.KVEF.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-051025T1845Z/
CLARK NV-
1145 AM PDT TUE OCT 25 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY 
EXPIRES AT 1145 AM PDT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA 
BETWEEN COTTONWOOD COVE AND ELDORADO CANYON...NEAR NELSON HAVE 
WEAKENED. 

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TOWARD 
THE EAST AND OCCUR OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION 
AREA THROUGH 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE 
PEA-SIZED HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. BOATERS ARE NOT ENCOURAGED TO 
GO ON LAKE MEAD OR LAKE MOHAVE UNTIL STORMS PASS THIS AFTERNOON.  

LAT...LON 3548 11486 3543 11466 3583 11473 3585 11497

$$

PIERCE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1010 AM PDT TUE OCT 25 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVERHEAD INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING. THE 12Z
DRA SOUNDING INDICATED CAPE VALUES AROUND 700 J/KG AND THE -20
DEGREE C LINE AROUND 20K FEET. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS SATURATED ABOVE
700 MB AND THIS HAS FAVORED HAIL GROWTH WITH THUNDERSTORM GENERALLY
PRODUCING UP TO HALF-INCH DIAMETER HAIL. ISOLATED STORMS HAD
PRODUCED LARGER HAIL AND PROMPTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS IN
CLARK COUNTY THIS MORNING. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE SIMILAR WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW CENTER AND SHOW IT AROUND THE TIP OF
SOUTHERN NEVADA AT 18Z THEN MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA BY 00Z.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ENDS
ABRUPTLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM BEATTY DOWN THROUGH DEATH VALLEY. SHOULD SEE RAPID
IMPROVEMENT AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEVADA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE GOING FORECAST TRENDS ARE
OKAY BUT WILL ISSUE A LATE MORNING UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND KEEP WORDING CONSISTENT WITH LATEST
SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 AM PDT...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
HAS FIRED OFF A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING OVER INYO COUNTY. THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TODAY AND SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM AND TSTORM ACTIVITY...AND KEEPS MOST OF THE
PRECIP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. LITTLE
CHANGE TO POP GRIDS WERE NEEDED...AND STILL ANTICIPATE THE MOST
ACTIVITY TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL
FORECASTS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH SAN
BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME DYNAMICS
FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM JETSTREAK AND MODEL DIVQ WILL OPT TO KEEP AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN FOR THAT AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
SHIFTS EASTWARD. MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH FAST WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAS NOT BEEN VERY
IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER EURO AND GFS NOW IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH
MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS CENTRAL CA AND NV THURSDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED POPS A LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS JET DYNAMICS MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE.
&&

.LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
SLOWING OF THE TIMING. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS GOING OVER THE NORTHERN
CWFA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES SATURDAY AS MODEL
TIMING CONSENSUS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PEACH SPRINGS AND
MORMON MESA CORRIDORS THIS AFTERNOON. KLAS VICINITY WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 21Z. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LEAVING THE BEATTY AND DAGGETT CORRIDORS
FREE OF STORMS GENERALLY AFTER 20Z.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...NONE.
&&

DAVIS/MORGAN

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