Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Las Vegas, NV

000 
WWUS55 KVEF 292229
SVSVEF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
327 PM PDT FRI JUL 29 2005

CAC071-292237-
/O.EXP.KVEF.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-050729T2230Z/
SAN BERNARDINO CA-
327 PM PDT FRI JUL 29 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
   EXPIRES AT 330 PM PDT...

THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY HAVE WEAKENED AND 
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON 
SCHEDULE AT 330 PM PDT. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE 
TO MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF ADDITIONAL 
WARNINGS OVER THE HIGH DESERT.  

LAT...LON 3476 11650 3466 11603 3494 11597 3499 11644

$$

RUNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1101 AM PDT FRI JUL 29 2005

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE THAT MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN PLENTIFUL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
&&

.UPDATE...AFTER FURTHER CONSIDERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES. STEERING FLOW IS
WEAKEST AND MOISTURE RICHEST IN MOHAVE COUNTY...FAVORING SLOW MOVING
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. FOR CLARK COUNTY...THE LAS VEGAS CONVERGENCE
ZONE IS SETTING UP...AND REPEAT DEVELOPMENT/TRAINING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
240 AM PDT FRI JUL 29 2005

.SHORT TERM...SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF
THE CWA WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL NYE
COUNTY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A DRIER MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW
PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW. LOW LEVELS STILL
REMAIN RATHER MOIST WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 50S OVER MOST
AREAS. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE DRYING AND WARMING AT THE MID
LEVELS WHICH MAY SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT TODAY...BUT WITH
THE AMPLE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WE WILL STILL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD AS
THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER SATURDAY
WHICH SHOULD RE-OPEN THE DOOR FOR ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THINK THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. ALTHOUGH CENTER OF RIDGE PER CURRENT LONG TERM MODELS IS
NO LONGER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AS MODELS SHOWING A MUCH BROADER
RIDGE WITH A VARYING POSITION OF CENTER NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER OVERALL
PATTERN OF RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN AS LITTLE OUTLET SEEN TO SHIFT IT
EAST...AND GENERAL FLOW STILL ALLOWS FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AT
TIMES SHIFTING INTO THE CWA FROM OLD MEXICO. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT
FORECAST OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH FINE TUNING HAVING TO WAIT UNTIL SHORT TERM. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO MOISTURE/AFTERNOON...EVENING
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

.AVIATION...TAF ADEQUATELY COVERS ALL EXPECTED WEATHER AT KLAS.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN FORM AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ALL
ROUTE CORRIDORS WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER KLAS VALLEY.
ERRATIC WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH THE VALLEY WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DURING THE
DAY.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NVZ016>022 UNTIL 10 PM.
.AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH AZZ001>003-036 UNTIL 10 PM.
.CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CAZ029 UNTIL 10 PM.
&&

MORGAN/GORELOW/JENSEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1126 AM PDT FRI JUL 29 2005

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ026>029-NVZ014>022-301400-
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK CA-ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY NV-
LAKE HAVASU AND FORT MOHAVE AZ-LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA AZ-
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA NV-LAS VEGAS VALLEY NV-
LINCOLN COUNTY NV-NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY NV-NORTHWEST DESERTS AZ-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AZ-
OWENS VALLEY AND ADJACENT EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES CA-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY DESERTS CA-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-
UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-SHEEP RANGE NV-
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY NV-SPRING MOUNTAINS-RED ROCK CANYON NV-
WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY NV-
1126 AM PDT FRI JUL 29 2005

.TODAY...FRIDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CLARK COUNTY NV AND MOHAVE
COUNTY AZ UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN LESS THAN AN
HOUR...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM-INDUCED WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY.

RUNK