Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Las Vegas, NV

000
WGUS75 KVEF 052246
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
345 PM PDT FRI AUG 5 2005

AZC015-052251-
MOHAVE AZ-
345 PM PDT FRI AUG 5 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY EXPIRES AT 345
PM PDT(345 PM MST)...

THE HEAVY RAINS AND RUNOFF HAVE ENDED...THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING FOR CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE 
MOHAVE COUNTY ALERT GAGE JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF VALENTINE HAD A 
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2.99 INCHES.

LAT...LON 3506 11359 3509 11333 3569 11346 3551 11385

$$
SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
935 AM PDT FRI AUG 5 2005

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.UPDATE...BAND OF DEBRIS CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MOHAVE
COUNTY THROUGH CLARK COUNTY AND INTO CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
WILL HAMPER INITIAL HEATING THIS MORNING. HOWEVER DEBRIS CLOUDS ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK BOUNDARY THAT HAS AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH INITIAL HEATING WILL BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT...LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THIS...SO NO UPDATES PLANNED ATTM.
&&

.AVIATION...TAF ADEQUATELY COVERS EXPECTED CONDITIONS AT KLAS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS ALL APPROACH
CORRIDORS MAINLY AFTER 19Z THEN DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. STORMS WILL HAVE
LITTLE MOVEMENT TODAY AND ONCE AGAIN WILL NEED TO WATCH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON KLAS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM PDT...SHORT TERM...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ENDED OVER THE CWA BY 10 PM BUT DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA AS OF 2 PM. BASIC SYNOPTIC SETUP THIS
MORNING HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEVADA WITH ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA IN MEXICO IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD
UNDER THE NEW MEXICO HIGH AND INTO SONORA AND THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NORTH OF THE LOW IS ALSO
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST WITH THE MOST ACTIVE AREA NOW ENTERING THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE CLOUD MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
STORMS IS PUSHING TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CWA. IF THIS
CLOUD SHIELD HOLDS TOGETHER...THIS COULD HOLD DOWN HEATING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CWA TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
APPEARS WELL SOUTH...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED JUST
NORTHWEST OF PHOENIX HEADED IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION. SO...A
THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF MOHAVE AND
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES THIS MORNING. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH AND
SEE IF THESE STORMS PUSH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA POSSIBLY
PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR STORMS OVER OUR AREA TODAY. OTHER
THAN THAT...IT APPEARS THAT A MOIST AND INSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE BUT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA NEARER
TO THE HIGH CENTER. LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED WITH STORMS TODAY AS
850-300 MB MEAN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 0 TO 5 MPH. THIS MEANS
HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH DEVELOPING STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT AND TIMING OF CLOUD COVER TODAY. WENT A
LITTLE COOLER OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER HEATING IN
THIS AREA. &&

.LONG TERM...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE DRYING
TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA...THAT WAS AT ONE TIME INDICATED...
PROBABLY WILL NOT MATERIALIZE EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS
NOW DEPICTS THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTING UP NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTING EAST SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULTING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE A
MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR A MOISTURE
INCREASE AND DOES NOT ESTABLISH A CLOSED HIGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
INSTEAD...IT KEEPS A MEAN HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND INDICATES
MOISTURE AT 700 MB AND BELOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SE CA/SRN
NV/NW AZ. WHILE NOT FULLY EMBRACING THE GFS SOLUTION...DID
REINTRODUCE 20-30 POPS BACK INTO SE CA ZONES AND INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR THE SRN NV MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...NONE.
&&

JENSEN/SALMEN/ADAIR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
930 AM PDT FRI AUG 5 2005

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ026>029-NVZ014>022-061630-
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK CA-ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY NV-
LAKE HAVASU AND FORT MOHAVE AZ-LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA AZ-
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA NV-LAS VEGAS VALLEY NV-
LINCOLN COUNTY NV-NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY NV-NORTHWEST DESERTS AZ-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AZ-
OWENS VALLEY AND ADJACENT EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES CA-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY DESERTS CA-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-
UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-SHEEP RANGE NV-
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY NV-SPRING MOUNTAINS-RED ROCK CANYON NV-
WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY NV-
930 AM PDT FRI AUG 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...FRIDAY.

THE MONSOON PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN...WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.