Severe Thunderstorm Warning 252, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
215 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...AT 19Z SFC MAP SHOWS WK SFC LOW IN NWRN SD WITH SFC
TROF EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NE WY AND EASTWARD ALONG SD/ND
BORDER. BEST INSTABILITY...THETA-E RIDGE AND BEST THETA-E ADV
EXTENDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FM NE WY THRU NRN HALF OF BLACK HILLS
INTO NWRN SD...CU FIRING UP IN BLK HILLS AND TSTMS HAVE ALREADY
DVLPD JUST NORTH OF BOUNDARY IN SRN ND. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO CONT
TO DVLP THRU THIS AREA OVR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH SVR WX LIKELY
THIS AFT AND EVENING.

ANOTHER S/W WILL MV THRU FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...GOOD THETA-E ADV
AND OMEGA WILL CONT TO PROD SCT SHWS/TSTMS THRU THE NIGHT. ON MON
CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO MV THRU FA EARLY. THE TIMING OF FRONT WL BE
CRITICAL TO WHAT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL BE FOR THE DAY. CHC OF
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE COOL
AIR PUSHING IN...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR A CHANGE ON TUES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN FOR WED/THU WHICH
WILL BRING DRY WX AND A SLOW WARMING TREND BACK TO ABV NORMAL TEMPS
BY THURS.

EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLIDE EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER BACK TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP FORECAST DRY THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...THOUGH ISOLATED STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A COUPLE OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. AT THIS
POINT...THE CHANCES LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER AND WEST OF THE BLACK HILLS...THEN SPREADING
NORTH AND EAST BY THIS EVENING...AFFECTING ALL TWEB ROUTES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRAP AND KGCC WITH VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 671 UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR WEST-CENTRAL
     AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 671 UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR CROOK COUNTY
     IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
630 AM MDT SUN JUL 24 2005

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-251300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
630 AM MDT (730 AM CDT) SUN JUL 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING...ALONG WITH WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
INITIATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BUFFALO TO
FAITH. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR NORTHEAST
WYOMING...ALONG WITH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE AREA
WITH THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAMP
CROOK TO PHILIP TO WINNER. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
632 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             SUNDANCE                44.40N 104.37W
07/24/2005  0.88 INCH        CROOK              WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LCZEPYHA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
638 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             2 W BEULAH              44.53N 104.12W
07/24/2005  1.00 INCH        CROOK              WY   PUBLIC

&&

LCZEPYHA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
643 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             27 N BELLE FOURCHE      45.07N 103.85W
07/24/2005  1.00 INCH        BUTTE              SD   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

LCZEPYHA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
648 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             14 W USTA               45.22N 102.45W
07/24/2005  0.75 INCH        PERKINS            SD   PUBLIC

&&

LCZEPYHA

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